Can we survive with peak oil fast approaching?
People say "Oh, don't worry, they'll find another big oil field soon". Will they really?
Main evidence
Saudi Arabia keeps the world's oil supply stable, and has done since 1952. If Saudi oil production depletes, the biggest chunk of the world's oil supply will deplete.
The reason is that of the 80 million barrels a day that the world demands, a huge portion comes from just 4 super-giant fields in Saudi.
They produce incredible amounts of oil. The next 100 biggest fields around the world don't produce as much as these 4 fields.
Therefor, when these start to dry up, no supply on earth could make up the difference. And there lies the beginning of the problem.
Sure, there is plenty of oil out there, in drips and drabs, but it will not be possible to produce the 80m barrel per day demand, without Saudi Arabia.
People say, "oh, don't worry, they'll find another big oil field soon". Will they really? They've been looking very hard indeed since the 1970s and not found one yet.
The science bit
At first, wells require no additional "help" to produce top-grade oil due to high pressure at the well head. It just squirts out.
After time it becomes necessary to pump water into the well to maintain this pressure. But then you get water in your oil and you find yourself having to separate water from your oil before you sell it.
You can imagine how much it costs to separate water from oil at 5 million barrels a day from one oil field!
Saudi Arabia is now pumping in phenomenal quantities of water to produce it's oil. Billions of barrels. Every week the water:oil ratio within the fields increases and it costs more to produce.
The oil producing countries of the world, belonging to OPEC, of which Saudi Arabia is a member, decided to stop publishing all information pertaining to their production levels and reserves in 1982.
Since then ALL experts have been kept guessing.
Depleting fields
Matthew Simmons, in order to produce his report on Saudi Arabia's oil levels, contacted ex-well head managers, studied accounts and most importantly studied the thousands of reports submitted by Saudi Arabia up to 1982 and a few other important documents since.
He believes that Saudi Arabia is well past its peak oil point and has been producing oil from ever depleting fields for years.
He believes that very soon, the amount of water being pumped into these wells will take its toll in a sudden and dramatic way.
No amount of shale oil or drilling of new wells will account for anywhere near the amount that is produced from Saudi's wells.
It is just not physically or economically possible to produce oil in this quantity in any other way.
The Gawar super-giant in Saudi produces 5m barrels per day. An average field in the north sea would typically produce about 20,000 barrels per day - at great expense.
A flow rate any higher would significantly decrease the life of the field, as each well has it's own optimum production flow-rate.
Could the Mayan prediction of "The world changing as we know it in 2012" actually come true?
Carbon emissions
If global warming is the result of man's carbon emissions, it would seem that nature has it all in hand - she'll just remove the carbon that we love to emit!
Or is it a bit too big a coincidence that we are being told to stop emitting carbon (burning oil) because of the effect on the climate whilst the world scrambles on its knees looking for oil?
I had a bet last night with Gareth Read from Rednal Paintball that petrol prices would at least double in the next 5 years. Thanks Gareth - the easiest £100 I'll ever earn!
From looking at the alternative view, that we have enough oil for at least 50 years, there doesn't seem to be any credible evidence whatsoever.
I tried to balance the argument but the ONLY reason that people argue there is plenty of oil is because Saudi Arabia says it has.
It isn't prepared to offer any evidence whatsoever, and let's not forget that the US backed Israel and not Palestine, breaking its promise to Saudi Arabia when arranging the oil concessions several decades ago...
Rednall, Oswestry
