Is yellow rosette in peril at Ludlow?

The last time that the party – whether as the Liberal Party, the Liberal Democrats, or, when it didn't stand, the SDP – finished outside the top two places in a General Election was in 1964.

It doesn't necessarily have a long history of actually winning the seat, which is a long-time Conservative stronghold. But in 2001, at least, the constituency was pinned with a yellow rosette.

This pastoral wonderland of a constituency is prime liberal territory. This time, though, things don't look quite so sunny for the party in yellow. Local candidate Charlotte Barnes, so the bookies' odds tell us, is fighting to overhaul not just Conservative Philip Dunne, the seat's previous incumbent, but the current second-favourite for the position: Ukip's David Kelly.

"We are out to win," insists the 32-year-old. "We are serious contenders."

The national picture doesn't look pretty for the party, with the Liberal Democrats currently looking at around eight per cent of the vote.

In the rural south of the county, one issue likely to play a part in political debates ahead of the General Election is that of building on the picturesque countryside - much of which, in the Ludlow constituency, is in the Shropshire Hills area of outstanding beauty.

With the current government's big push for more housing across the UK - together with Shropshire Council's five year plan to meet it taking years to finalise - the area has been inundated with controversial applications for modern housing estates on the edge of beauty spots or tiny villages, and the resulting outcry has not been pretty.

One such project has been a proposal for 85 houses and 16 holiday cabins at New House Farm, next to a hill fort and popular walking spot Caer Caradoc, near Church Stretton. The plans have been the subject of a wrangle between developer Morris Property and community leaders in Church Stretton for almost two years.

Campaigners, led by Church Stretton Town Council, and mayor Michael Braid, were outraged the plans were initially included in the council's five year plan and fought to have it removed, calling it akin to "vandalism" of the countryside. Even local MP Philip Dunne, who normally stays out of local planning matters, spoke out against the scheme.

However, the plans re-emerged in the form of a separate planning application late last year, with developers insisting it met national policy and hence there were no grounds to refuse it, while campaigners threatened to call in minister for local government, Eric Pickles, to intervene.

The tension between national policy and local authority decisions is never clearer than in the rising number of "boomerang" applications that are refused by Shropshire Council only to be resubmitted by developers months later together with a threat they will appeal to the national Planning Inspectorate if it is not passed - and losing an appeal would cost the council dearly in a time of slashed budgets and cuts.

Lib Dem Ludlow councillor Andy Boddington, a member of Shropshire Council's south planning committee accused Tesni Properties of using "heavy handed" tactics for making such a threat over its plans for 215 homes on Bromfield Road the edge of Ludlow.

But agent Andy Williams argued the developers were simply giving the authority a second chance to consider the application to clear up some misconceptions. It was turned down a second time, and will now go to a public enquiry this summer.

It is not just housing applications that keep coming back - the constituency has seen four controversial solar farm applications made for farmland around the region, all of which were turned down. So far two have been resubmitted, but scaled down.

Changes in government policy scrapping subsidies for large scale solar farms were expected to put a damper on such applications, but another has been made since. Campaigners are pleased the coalition government has shown a clear preference for solar panels on brownfield sites and rooftops rather than in the countryside - but green energy supporters are frustrated.

Jamie Wrench of Shropshire green group Stretton Climate Care, said he was "disappointed and depressed" with politicians making decisions for political reasons rather scientific or evidence-based ones, and the tendency to promise generous subsidies for green schemes, only to pull the plug later.

But Ludlow can be something of an oddity, that's very difficult to predict.

Since the 2010 election, and the subsequent collapse in the party's national support, Liberal Democrats have picked up seats on Shropshire Council.

Ludlow town is represented by three members from the party. Mrs Barnes, whose former careers include working as a headhunter and an electrician's mate, is the councillor for Bishop's Castle, although much of the remainder of the constituency is represented by Conservatives in council.

"The Liberal Democrats have held the seat fairly recently," Mrs Barnes said. "It has traditionally been a two-horse race between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. There's nothing to say we couldn't have it again.

"Ludlow is a strange place, in a way. She says. It's always bucking trends. We have made council gains since 2010, and that's an interesting reflection, and I don't think we are following the nine per cent rate in the national polls."

Her opponent concurs."In recent elections it has been a close fight between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, and I expect that again this time," said Mr Dunne, who combined his constituency work with a Government role as Minister for Defence Equipment, Support and Technology.

The 58-year-old, who was a backer of David Cameron during his 2005 party leadership campaign, was a founder of the book chain Ottakar's in a his pre-parliamentary life.

He admits that there is likely to be less predictability about the election, and that minority parties are likely to pick up an increased share of the vote.

But he refuses to make predictions about how the seat will fall. "I don't want to tempt fate by making a prediction," he says down an intermittent phone line as he drives his "battle bus" – a 1992 camper van – over Clee Hill.

"I'm taking this very seriously, not taking anything for granted, and working hard for every vote."

If that sounds like the ideal election answer to the question of who's going to win, he delivers a comment straight from the Conservative handbook as he talks about why people should tick the Tory box on May 7.

"My feeling is the undecided voters and those considering minority parties are now making their minds up," he adds.

"The critical choice they are facing is whether to stick with the economic plan that is clearly working, and beginning to deliver jobs and prosperity, or whether they risk it all and vote for another party which raises the prospect of a government of Labour, propped up by the SNP, hell-bent on destroying the UK."

If Ludlow's likely winners are the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats, I ask, were both parties not partially responsible for the current economy.

"That's a question for my opponent," he says. He is slightly more forthcoming when it comes to his future plans for the constituency.

"I'm campaigning on jobs and growth," Mr Dunne adds. "We need to have a strong economy to have a strong NHS. I'm campaigning for the hospitals in south Shropshire to be upgraded to urgent care, increasing funding for Shropshire schools to remove historic unfairness which sent more money to urban areas."

As we speak, he's on his way to see another growing south Shropshire business, Kudos Blends. His record on jobs, he adds, works in his favour.

"I have held six job fairs, and unemployment is down by more than half in the last two years," says Mr Dunne.

"We are looking for growth in existing businesses. Bridgnorth Aluminium is having a £40 million investment in a new foundry and new rolling lines. Businesses all over the constituency are adding people."

"People are inspired to live here, we think it's the most beautiful part of the county, and people are responding to the message that the economy is growing, and the recovery is happening."

Mrs Barnes says her own party's messages are diluted by the presentation of the party on a national level.

"We don't have national newspapers promoting our cause like some others do," Mrs Barnes adds.

"We have done really well in many ways. The £10,000 tax rate was in our manifesto, and we managed to get over and above that. That has made a difference in Ludlow – it has brought 5,000 people here out of tax altogether.

"Many more have had an £800 tax cut, which is fantastic in a low-wage area."

Independent businesses, country pursuits and the town hospital are all on people's minds in Ludlow in the run up to next month's General Election.

Donna Hemus, a 48-year-old HR specialist who lives in Craven Arms, said she thought incumbent Philip Dunne had done a lot of good, but her sympathies were naturally more to the left.

"I'd probably go more for Labour policies," she said. "My only drawback is thinking about who's going to be in parliament. Ed Miliband doesn't sound genuine to me, he sounds as if he's reciting other people's words."

Ludlow resident Melvin Marston, 61, and currently unemployed, had no such doubts.

"Cameron's the best," he said.

"If Labour get in they'd ruin the county like last time."

David Gray, 62, who runs the Art Room gift shop in Ludlow, agreed he would most likely vote for Mr Dunne.

He said: "Things seem to be going all right here compared to the rest of the country."

Charmian Ingham, a speech and voice coach who retired to Ludlow, said she usually voted Lib Dem but considered herself "a-political".

"I don't have much faith in this political system. I glance at the candidates' leaflets but I take it all with a pinch of salt," she said.

Henry Mackley, 36, who runs Harp Lane Deli, said: "

"I think I'll vote Conservative because all I've got to go on is what's good for where I am, but it's really tough."

Labour itself has very rarely made a significant impact in Ludlow. The party's best-ever performance since 1960 – when not in a two-horse race, as in 1966 – was to finish second two years before.

As Labour painted the Commons red in 1997, the party drew its leading rival in Ludlow to its closest finish in 30 years – finishing a mere 8,000 votes off the pace.

Simon Slater, the candidate for the party this time out, says he believes he has a chance of overhauling at least some of its opposition.

The bookies are less hopeful, consistently placing the candidate behind his Green Party rival Janet Phillips with odds of 100/1 against him.

"It is fair to say that Labour has not performed as well in Ludlow over the past few elections as we might have liked," he said.

"However, I think in this election our performance will be a lot stronger.

"In the past our vote was squeezed by many people voting Liberal Democrat to try and keep out the Tories. However, with many people feeling the Lib Dems betrayed them by going into coalition with the Conservatives I think many more people will be deciding to back Labour.

"With this in mind I would not expect us to come fifth despite the bookies odds, and I would expect us to get more votes than we did in 2010."

Healthcare

Mr Slater pinpoints healthcare as a key issue which is affecting the constituency.

"I think on health provisions it is important that as much healthcare as is safe to do so is delivered as locally as possible and people kept out of the main hospitals by good primary care services from our committed GPs and community-based nurses and other professionals including health visitors and physiotherapists.

"A proper solution must be found for Ludlow maybe on the existing site, Bridgnorth's facilities need to be maintained and services at Bishop's Castle developed.

"Unfortunately insufficient funding has been provided to properly develop alternatives to acute hospital services and more is needed. On A and E if you look at the catchment areas including much of South Shropshire and at alternatives, or lack of out of county options, Shrewsbury would be the obvious choice."

He adds: "I think rural public transport is a key area.

"Services have been cut and this has led to some people becoming more isolated.

"Rural broadband is also something that comes up and we need to make sure the service providers give access to all areas."

Mr Kelly also believes Ukip can make an unprecedented impact on the seat.

"I am confident that we can," he says. "Distrust and suspicion of our politicians is widespread and runs deep, deservedly so.

"People tell me they are crying out for a change, for someone to clean out the stables of Westminster and have an honest politics that listens to the people and serves them

"People want a straight answer politics, a clear and principled philosophy and policies which reflect the realities of life in Britain today."

His three-pillared campaign is focused on the NHS – and he supports retention of A&E services at both major hospitals – preventing development on greenfield sites, and "a disciplined work ethos in all our schools underpinning real learning for real jobs".

"The people I speak to or who approach me are concerned about the same things that worry every voter," he adds.

"The costs and pressures of mass, open-door immigration and the impact it continues to have on wages, conditions, availability of housing, pressures on schools admitting great numbers of pupils with no English and the mounting demand on NHS services, from GPs to maternity wards.

"Another issue is the economy – when will ordinary people feel the benefit of the much-vaunted recovery? Then there's the crisis in the NHS."

Mrs Barnes, who originally comes from Yorkshire but has lived in south Shropshire since she was 16, agrees that the NHS is a key issue.

"We have three fantastic hospitals in the Ludlow constituency, and people are asking whether they are going to keep them, and whether there's an increased service. People also want their main hospital services to be in Shrewsbury, not Telford."