Christopher Gill: Ukip are here for the long term

"It is now more than ever apparent that the UK Independence Party is here to stay – much as the pro-EU Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties would like you to believe otherwise.

That being said, the local council and Euro elections will soon be forgotten as the focus inevitably shifts to next year's General Election.

The interesting and challenging question now is how Ukip itself is going to face up to the future.

It has much going for it. It has some distinctive policies that the other parties, because of their craven submission to the dictates of the EU, simply cannot match.

It has a massive groundswell of popular support that is demonstrably opposed to the EU.

It has a rapidly growing party membership ready, willing and able to work tirelessly for a party in which they believe – and a leader who I believe stands head and shoulders above Cameron, Clegg and Miliband.

Ukip also has a brand image that is universally recognised and last but by no means least, a consistent approach which contrasts favourably with the constantly changing policies and broken promises of the other parties.

To my certain knowledge there were people intending to vote Ukip last Thursday who had either never voted before or who had given up voting because they saw all the other parties as "being as bad as each other".

At the last General Election there were 15.9 million abstainers. Ukip only needs to add a small percentage of these people to its existing core vote to win seats at Westminster.

Among all other insults hurled at Ukip's is the accusation that it is a single issue party. Nothing could be further from the truth, as will be demonstrated when it produces its manifesto for 2015.

The trick will be to ensure that these manifesto commitments reach the ears of all its potential supporters – not an easy task when so much of the national press harbours an inbuilt prejudice against what Ukip stands for.

In this particular regard the fact that Ukip's policies are, when all said and done, largely "common sense" is a further reason why Ukip will continue to make serious inroads.

But there is another factor which Ukip can exploit. For a very long time now millions of votes, on either side of the political divide, have been cast 'to keep the other lot out'.

As more voters come to recognise what little this achieves they will perhaps conclude that the time has come to stop voting "tactically".

Where Ukip can really score is just by being itself – a party of "common sense", a party that tells the truth, a party that doesn't have to rely upon "spin doctors" and a party that can campaign on the strength of what you see being what you get.

As far as the next 12 months are concerned the joker in the pack is what might conceivably happen within the Conservative Parliamentary Party.

If David Cameron goes ahead with his plan to make aspects of this country's criminal justice system "subject to the full jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and the enforcement powers of the European Commission", he runs the risk of provoking a party split.

In those circumstances it is not inconceivable that the Tory MPs who are so viscerally opposed they will defect to Ukip.

We are then looking at an entirely novel situation which would make Ukip not only the kingmaker in any future coalition negotiations, but also the only credible alternative to Labour.

Ukip must play to its strengths, capitalise upon its popular support, persuade millions of abstainers to turn out and vote, convince the supporters of other parties to abandon 'tactical voting' and hope and pray that the significant number of Conservative MPs who are opposed to European Union will have the courage of their convictions and "cross the floor" to join the only party that is unequivocally committed to getting the UK out of the EU, or otherwise risk losing their seats.

For them the next 12 months are going to be very much a case of game on."