North Shropshire: Is Tory win safe as houses?

Of all Shropshire's parliamentary constituencies, few pose a challenge for candidates like that held at the last election by Owen Paterson.

The Conservatives seem to belong in North Shropshire, clinging onto this rural constituency with what looks almost like a hereditary right.

One issue that is sure to interest the north Shropshire voters at the general election is party policy on controversial gas drilling.

Drilling for gas has become a hot topic among politicians who have to balance the benefits of energy creation against environmental risks. And for north Shropshire, the issue has landed right on the doorstep – plans were submitted by Dart Energy last year to operate an exploratory borehole for coal bed methane extraction in Dudleston Heath near Ellesmere.

Drilling for coal bed methane does not use high powered jets of water to extract gas like its controversial counterpart fracking, but both are believed by campaigners to pose environmental risks.

The plans for Ellesmere were fought against by hundreds of people and Shropshire Council said it would have rejected the idea had the decision not been taken out of its hands.

Instead, a government planning inspectorate will decide whether or not the scheme can go ahead.

But anti-fracking groups are hoping to use their vote to put an end to gas drilling in the UK by showing support for those who oppose the initiative.

Owen Paterson has been MP for the north of the county since 1997 and acted as Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs from 2012 until 2014.

Throughout his time as MP, he has spoken out "strongly in support" of gas drilling saying it could be a lifeline for the energy industry.

While he has said strict checks are needed before going ahead with any plans, Mr Paterson has said that Europe runs the risk of "condemning itself to oblivion as global manufacturer if it does not embrace fracking".

Labour, represented in north Shropshire by Graeme Currie, has also expressed enthusiasm into moving forward with fracking and gas drilling.

But many believe Labour has taken a more cautious approach to the issue, while Conservatives have not shown the same attitude.

Meanwhile, the Shrewsbury and North Shropshire Green Party has actively campaigned against the plans for Dudleston Heath.

Candidate Duncan Kerr and the party has promised to oppose any other applications for fracking or "unconventional gas" that come up in the area.

But in stark contrast, Ukip is known to support a whole range of energy options including wind, shale gas, coal, oil and solar.

The Liberal Democrats, represented by Tom Thornhill in north Shropshire, have been supporting the government policy on fracking.

In only two parliaments since its creation under the Reform Act of 1832 have voters waved off a non-Tory politician to Westminster, with a combined total of five years in parliament for Whigs and Liberals.

This is the beating heart of Britain's farming industry, and was represented in the most recent parliament by a man who spent nearly two years as Secretary of State for Farming and Rural Affairs.

So North Shropshire is a done deal, right?

Not according to Green candidate Duncan Kerr, who will need a swing of almost 26,000 votes if he hopes to make an impression in the constituency.

Steve Boulding walked away with 808 votes tucked sadly where a deposit cheque might have been when he became the first representative of the party in the patch in 2010.

But Mr Kerr said: "If enough people come out and make their feelings known, this seat can easily swing.

"The key to this election will be the people who haven't traditionally voted. We have had a couple of by-elections for the council in Oswestry, and the turnout has been as low as 11 per cent. That tells me that there's no great enthusiasm for people to turn out and vote for the Conservatives.

"There are various people who are a bit disgruntled and feel politicians have let them down. We understand that, but it's now about what they choose to do about it."

The odds are stacked firmly in Owen Paterson's favour, though.

Mr Kerr faces odds of 100/1 to scoop the seat, says Paddy Power, as does Liberal Democrat Tom Thornhill, who at the age of 20 is the third youngest parliamentary candidate in the country.

"The first election I have any kind of recollection of was when I was six or seven in 2001," the student of international relations said. "I went to the polling station with my mum and waited outside while she voted.

"In 2005 I was 10 or 11, and I remember it being a fight between Tony Blair and Michael Howard, and 2010 was the first time I was really engaged with it, when I was 16 or 17. The first time I will ever vote in a General Election, I will vote for myself."

Mr Thornhill, who lives with his parents just outside Whitchurch, where he grew up, joined the party shortly after 2010, before he became a student. He is now chairman of the University of Birmingham Liberal Democrats.

Wasn't he put off by the Liberal Democrats' policy shift on tuition fees?

"Students come to me and say 'how can you be a Lib Dem after that'? What we have got is an imperfect policy, but the argument from Nick Clegg is that the Liberal Democrats didn't win that election. We couldn't put in our full manifesto, so what we did do is put in the best system possible."

So wouldn't a vote for the party just mean propping up another government, and watering down policies?

"Huge amounts of policy have been pushed through by the party. Look at the first page of our 2010 manifesto and we have delivered in full 25 per cent of the pledges there – income tax threshold changes, pupil premiums, the green investment bank.

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"The reason I'm doing what I am is that I believe the country needs the Liberal Democrats offering a balanced approach – not spending too much, but not cutting outrageous amounts of public services."

Ladbrokes, William Hill and Betfair also offer odds of 100/1 on Labour's candidate Graeme Currie.

While Ukip finished almost 25,000 votes behind Mr Paterson in 2010, candidate Andrea Allen is still the most likely outside bet, bookies say, with odds of around 16/1.

"It will obviously be difficult to overturn a majority of some 16,000 in a traditionally Conservative seat with an incumbent MP, but the zeitgeist is changing," said Ms Allen. "People are fed up with not being listened to and they want something different. Ukip won Shropshire at the European elections, which is a sign that if you vote Ukip you get Ukip."

Michael Farrell, 76, of Prince Charles Road, Oswestry, said: "We have just returned to Britain after spending 11 years living in France and we can see that the NHS is one of the major issues here. So much has changed in the last decade.

"The NHS needs a complete rethink and we could learn a lot from what happens in France. Yes you have to pay, through an insurance, but you get what you pay for. The French have an extra tier which means you go to see your GP and he can refer you to a specialist before you go to hospital."

Sheila Farrell, 65, added: "We don't have the characters in politics anymore, the people who made you sit up and listen.

There is no-one that inspires me at all.

Jacqui Dowell, 69, Newtown, is concerned about immigration.

"Immigration is a priority," she said. "I am worried that our young people will not be able to get decent jobs. My 17-year-old nephew has been working six days a week for £3.45 an hour, its terrible. We also need to sort out the NHS."

Clint Kilgannon, 76, from the Wirral was in Oswestry visiting friends.

"All the parties have got to take a look at the NHS and try and save it."

Steve Martin, of Knolton, near St Martins, said: "We live a very modest, simple, lifestyle without electricity and so thankfully we avoid the election debate. No-one is talking about what I want to hear. I have a wind up radio that I used to listen to a political debate the other day. It didn't take long to realise that I wasn't missing anything."

"Everyone is talking about growing the economy, yet forever exponential growth is impossible. Growth needs more energy and energy is finite."

Andrea Martin said: "The environment is very important to me. If we carry on as we are, there will be nothing left for our children or our children's children

Mr Currie, who moved to the county in 2003 and runs a social work company, added: "I really believe that Labour can win in North Shropshire.

"There is a perfect storm growing that will sink the Tory grip on our area. This is the most unpredictable General Election in a generation."

Mr Paterson is favourite across the board, however, and by no small margin. With odds of 1/100, you could stake your house against him – but if it's worth £100,000, you'd only come away with an extra £1,000 to show for the biggest gamble of your life.

A study of the constituency by YouGov suggests that Mr Paterson is set to claim between 37.2 and 49.7 per cent of the vote, with Ukip and Labour squabbling over second place with upper forceasts of 32.7 and 27.8 per cent respectively.

The Lib Dems, who came second with more than 10,000 votes last time, are forecast to lose their deposit with a four per cent share on May 7.

Still, Mr Paterson agrees that he hasn't got the seat tied up just yet.

"I don't take it for granted," he insists. "I'm fully aware that there's a wide choice this time around, and I'm never complacent. Let's win locally, that's my first priority, and then let's make sure that we win nationally.

"I will be helping in neighbouring marginals for people like Glyn Davies in Montgomeryshire, who has been a really good MP and a big improvement. It has been much better working with him on local issues."

The former Defra and Northern Ireland Minister says he hopes to demonstrate the benefits of his connections at the top level of government on his local constituency, where he was born and raised.

"I got on very well with the Roads Minister John Hayes, and with Patrick McLoughlin the Transport Minister, and have been quite open about that and used it very clearly," he said.

"Getting the direct train service back was a team effort but it was really helpful that Patrick McLoughlin was a cook up here as a young man in a pub, and knew the importance to this area of getting that running."

Green candidate Mr Kerr said one of the key issues facing voters in the seat is coalbed methane extraction, which has been described by campaign group Frack Off as "the evil twin of fracking".

"There has been major concern about the coalbed methane production in the future," he said. "And the whole of North Shropshire is at risk from fracking.

"That has a significant impact on how people see local communities and national politics. We can't go on like this, invading our countryside and environment for gas."

Mr Currie agrees, and calls Mr Paterson "the chief cheerleader of fracking".

"Fracking will hit the Tory vote hard," he said.

Other key policies for Mr Kerr include treatment of workers, pointing to the fact that the seat is supported by a low-wage economy.

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"The last five years have done nothing to help working people advance in any way," he said.

"Austerity and the cutbacks have hit hard in North Shropshire, and certainly in Oswestry where I live.

We believe we need to support public services and ensure hospitals like the Royal Shrewsbury don't lose any more services."

Mr Paterson, meanwhile, defends his party's record on the economy when asked about living standards.

"People came up to me at Oswestry Livestock Market today saying they knew how bad it was, and that despite being in coalition, we made a lot of improvements and the economy is much better, but that it can so easily be ruined.

"We were borrowing £300,000 a minute as a country in 2010, and there's this talk about vicious austerity – which is nonsense.

"We have begun to get spending under control, cut out a huge amount of waste, and by reducing tax, grow the economy. We have begun to get a grip on public spending, we are still borrowing too much, and we have to grow the economy further. The private sector has been amazing, there's been a tremendous increase in employment."

Is it true that North Shropshire is a low wage economy?

"Happily, it's a reasonably low cost part of the country," he responds. "Property prices are reasonably low compared with other parts, and we have a council that has frozen council tax year after year.

"The answer to this is to get out of people's hair. Reduce tax and costs on businesses and allow them to reinvest, then they can plough money back into wages.

"The significant increases in employment are a good thing. In the car industry there's significant competition for people with engineering skills, and that means there's pressure for skilled labour."

Ms Allen said she would campaign on planning and immigration, two issues which she says overlap.

"We wish to prioritise the use of brownfield sites and to protect valuable farmland from development as well as give local people more control over whether large housing developments should go ahead," she said.

"By controlling our borders and limiting immigration we will be able to reduce the demand which is fuelling the need for so much building.

"Limiting immigration to those with the skills that we need will also reduce competition for low skilled jobs; an unlimited supply of cheap labour has driven down wages and seriously disadvantaged the working class.

"What we can do for farmers largely depends on whether we can break free of the EU; we would wish to remove the burdensome regulations which the EU imposes."

Mr Currie said he hopes to support market towns in the region through his position.

"I would campaign to revitalise our market towns, support our farmers and encourage more small businesses," he said.

The committed Christian added: "Our NHS is something we are all proud off. Here in Shropshire we risk losing vital A&E services at either Shrewsbury or Telford. My daughter Grace's life was saved by timely access to the Royal Shrewsbury Hospital and I will fight to defend these services."