The end of the world in 2019? I wouldn’t bet on it...
It’s the dawn of a new year, but what does it hold? What can we expect to see happening over the next year ahead.
The experiences of 2018 would suggest that the only thing we can predict is that the unpredictable will happen. But that won't stop thousands of people trying their luck by placing bets down at the bookmakers.
So what odds are the bookies offering on different things happening during 2019?
The Grand National is not until April, but they say that the early bird catches the worm. If you fancy placing an early bet, Total Recall, trained by Willie Mullins, is one of the early favourites, at 11-1 with Betfair. Paddy Power is offering 12-1 on Blaklion, while William Hill has Anibale Fly at 12-1.
Those of an optimistic bent could place an accumulator on all our region's football teams achieving their dreams this season. A £1 bet on Wolves qualifying for the Champions League, and Albion, Villa, Blues, Shrewsbury and Walsall all being promoted will not just make the West Midlands very happy – it would also net the lucky punter more than £127 million. Trying to find a bookie to take that bet might prove problematic, though.
There is bad news for Brenda from Bristol, though: Paddy Power puts the odds of a general election in 2019 at just 5-4, way ahead of any of the other possible dates. The Fixed Term Parliament Act means that the election should be held in 2022, unless two-thirds of MPs vote for an early poll, but the bookie puts the odds of the government lasting the full term at 7-4.
When it comes to predicting the outcome of the election, the odds indicate another inclusive result. William Hill, Betfair, and Bet Victor suggest a dead heat between the Conservatives and Labour, with Hill and Betfair offering 11-10 on both parties, and Bet Victor putting them at evens.
Bet 365 and Ladbrokes have Labour as slight favourites, with Bet 365 putting the party at 21-20, compared to 5-6 for the Conservatives, and Ladbrokes putting the Tories on 10-11 and Labour at evens. Paddy Power, on the other hand, makes the Tories the clear(ish) favourite at 8-11, compared to Labour at evens, and Sky Bet also puts the Tories slightly ahead at 10/11 compared to 11/10 for Labour. The one thing they all seem to agree on is that it will be close.
Consensus
Interestingly, while Paddy Power suggests the Conservatives will win the most seats at the next election, Jeremy Corbyn is the bookie's favourite to be the next prime minister. This may suggest that Mr Corbyn will find a way of putting a minority or coalition government together, or that Theresa May will continue for a third term – despite her recent announcement she would not lead the Conservatives into another election.
A simpler explanation, though, is that the betting market believes the next PM will be a Conservative, but there is no clear consensus of who that is likely to be. Mr Corbyn is 5-1 to succeed Mrs May, followed by Boris Johnson at 6-1, Sajid Javid at 7-1, and Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt all at 10-1.
While the odds are still against a second referendum before Britain leaves the EU, they are shortening considerably.
For those, like Brenda, looking for a bit of respite from all the political debate, there is always the new royal baby to look forward to, with the Duke and Duchess of Sussex – better known as Harry and Meghan – expecting an arrival in spring. And if the odds on the likely names are anything to go by, it seems it is likely to be a girl.
At 10-1, Diana is the favourite with William Hill, followed by Alice and Arthur at 12-1, and Victoria at 14-1. The bookmaker is offering 25-1 on him being named Henry, after his father, or 20-1 on him being named Charles after his royal grandfather. Thomas, the name of Meghan's estranged father, is perhaps slightly shorter than one might expect at 50-1.
For a bit more value on the name of the royal baby, Hill is offering 100-1 on Savannah, and 500-1 on Chardonnay, Kyle or Shane. Fans of the US president can get odds of 200-1 on the baby being named Donald, while devoted Brexiteers can get 250-1 on the baby being called Nigel after the former Ukip leader.
If you’re of a less sunny disposition, William Hill is offering odds of a million-to-one on the world coming to an end during the next 12 months. Trying to get a payout might be a touch problematic, though.