Different trends in Shropshire population predictions
New population figures for Shropshire have revealed differing fortunes for two areas of the county.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) numbers there may be hundreds more people living in the Shropshire Council area over the next five year than previously thought.
But in Telford & Wrekin the figures reveal that there may be thousands fewer than previously predicted living in the borough over the same period.
In Shropshire by 2026, the population may climb to 327,186. That is 574 more than the previous projections by the ONS.
In Telford & Wrekin the population could rise to 180,507, some 3,078 fewer than previously predicted.
The ONS produced the new figures using a different formula to calculate levels of migration – from overseas, and people moving between different areas within England.
Researchers looked at migration trends over a 10-year period rather than the five years of data previously studied. The projections look at past trends and do not attempt to predict the consequences of future events, such as the impact of Brexit on international migration levels.
Planning
The ONS says these calculations illustrate alternative future sizes and age structure of the population. They do not replace the previous population estimates, published last year, but should be used alongside them.
Across England, the greatest increase in population in the new figures is in Ealing where there may be 13,166 more residents by 2026. Liverpool, on the other hand, may have 17,900 fewer than indicated in previous projections.
The Local Government Association, which represents councils, said that local authorities used ONS projects to help them understand how the population in their area may change. Most councils use their own data alongside the projections.
A spokesperson said: "Population projections are an important tool in planning for the delivery of future services, such as education or social care.
“However, councils know that projections are not precise forecasts and that planning for future provision of services always needs to cover a range of scenarios.”
Looking further ahead, the population of Shropshire is projected to be 330,135 in 10 years time. That is 632 more than the previous analysis.
The Telford and Wrekin population is estimated to be 181,940 in a decade, 3,874 fewer than previous expectations.
