New mega-poll shows which way Shropshire voters would swing now - as data suggests Labour would lose nearly 200 seats

A new poll by think tank More in Common has revealed a dramatic shift in Britain’s electoral dynamics. 

The model estimates than election held this week would result in a highly fragmented Parliament - with five parties holding over 30 seats. 

While Labour would still come out on top, they would hold barely a third of the total number of seats and lead by just six over the Conservatives. With 72 seats, the polls show Reform UK emerging as the third largest party. 

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next General Election. Instead, however, it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office. 

"There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer Government disappointing and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow. Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election. While the new Government is still in its infancy it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the Government to deliver."

The poll suggests that seven cabinet ministers would lose their seats, including health secretary Wes Streeting, deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, home secretary Yvette Cooper, defence secretary John Healey, energy secretary Ed Miliband, education secretary Bridget Phillipson and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds.

But here in Shropshire, voters seem less likely to be swayed and there is no change in seats predicted for this hypothetical election. 

The poll does show some changes to the vote share, however.

In North Shropshire in July, Liberal Democrat Helen Morgan held onto her seat with 52.9 per cent of the vote. The Conservative candidate took 22 per cent, Reform UK 15.5 per cent and Labour 6.9 per cent. 

The new poll shows a Lib Dem hold with 39 per cent of the vote, Conservative at 28 per cent, Reform at 19 per cent and Labour with 8 per cent. 

For Shrewsbury at election time, Labour's Julia Buckley received 44.5 per cent of the vote, unseating the Conservatives who had 22.5 per cent, followed by Reform with 14.6 per cent and the Lib Dems with 13 per cent. 

The new poll shows a Labour hold, but taking just 31 per cent of the vote, Conservatives at 26 per cent, Reform at 20 per cent and the Lib Dems with 14 per cent. 

In July, Labour gained Telford from the Conservatives, with Shaun Davies bagging 44.7 per cent of the vote, followed by Reform UK at 24.8 per cent and Conservatives at 21.4 per cent.

It's a Labour hold in the new poll in Telford too - but with Labour's share dropping to 30 per cent, followed by Reform at 28 per cent and Conservatives at 26 per cent.

In South Shropshire in July, the Conservatives held on to power with 34 per cent of the vote share for Stuart Anderson, 31 per cent for the Lib Dems, 17 per cent for Reform UK and 13 per cent for Labour.

The latest poll shows the Conservatives would remain in South Shropshire, with a few extra votes too. They would be predicted 41 per cent of the votes, while the Lib Dems would get 24 per cent, Reform UK 20 per cent and Labour 9 per cent.

The full data set is available online at: moreincommon.org.uk/latest-insights/mrp-december