Shropshire Star

Revealed: Latest unemployment figures for West Midlands, including benefit claims

Wage growth in the UK has slowed to the lowest rate for 10 months, reinforcing hopes that the Bank of England could consider cutting interest rates as the jobs market continues to cool.

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But official figures also revealed that earnings have outstripped price rises for the fifth month in a row, in a boost to workers amid the cost-of-living crisis.

UK average regular earnings, excluding bonuses, increased by 6.6% in the three months to November, down from a revised 7.2% in the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It is the lowest rate since the three months to January last year and one of the steepest falls in earnings growth since during the pandemic.

The latest data could give Bank of England policymakers further reassurance that higher interest rates are working their way through the economy, reinforcing expectations that they will begin cutting borrowing costs later this year.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst for Oanda, said that inflation has fallen faster than expected and with wage growth slowing sharply, “there is every chance we see much more over the coming months that enables the Bank of England to pivot towards cutting interest rates”.

“It is probably a little early to expect too big a pivot but it could lay the groundwork for a May cut as long as the data continues to comply,” he added.

Meanwhile, the number of job vacancies fell by 49,000 over the three months to December to 934,000, marking the 18th period in a row that openings have fallen and the longest run of falls ever recorded.

The rate of UK unemployment remained unchanged at 4.2% in the three months to November while in the West Midlands, the figure stood at 5.1 per cent.

But more real-time data showed the number of UK workers on payrolls fell by 24,000 to 30.2 million for December, compared with November, although the ONS cautioned this was subject to revision.

The wider jobs data, which is being collated using extra data sources to estimate the figure due to low responses to its labour force survey, showed that the rate of UK employment increased to 75.8% from 75.7% in the previous quarter.

Across the West Midlands, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, including Universal Credit, in December was 178,680, down 235 from 178,915.

In Shropshire, those claiming benefits stood at 4,195, down from 4,270 in November while in Telford and Wrekin, the figure was 4,000, a fall of 20 from the previous month.

In Powys, the figure stood at 1,650 – 2.2 per cent of the working population – down 40.

The number of claimants in Dudley was 9,085, down from 9,115 while Wolverhampton claimant count figures fell to 11,895, from 12,075 in November (7.2 per cent of the working population).

In Sandwell, the claimant count numbers were 13,385, a fall from 13,555 in November while Walsall figures stood at 9,525, up slightly from 9,510 previously.

In Staffordshire, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits stood at 15,165 (2.8 per cent of the working population) which was a rise of 135 on the previous month.

South Staffordshire claimants were at 1,175, a rise of 65, while the number in Lichfield was up 15 to 1,460 – 2.3 per cent of the working population. Cannock Chase saw 2,105 claimants, up five from the previous total, and 3.4 per cent of the working population.

Stafford's claimant figure for December was 2,045, down from 2,075 while the number of claimants in Tamworth stood at 1,730, up 60 (3.5 per cent of the working population).

For Wyre Forest, including Kidderminster, the number of claimants was 1,850, up from 1,815.

Liz McKeown, the ONS’s director of economic statistics, said: “The overall picture continues to be broadly stable, with the unemployment rate unchanged and the employment rate up slightly on the previous three months.

“Job vacancies fell again, with the retail area seeing the biggest fall. However, the overall number of vacancies still remains above its pre-pandemic level.

“November saw the lowest number of days lost to strikes for 18 months, driven by a big drop in the health sector.

“While annual pay growth remains high in cash terms, we continue to see signs that wage pressures might be easing overall.

“However, with inflation still falling more quickly, earnings continued to grow in real terms.”

Neil Carberry, chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, said: “The labour market has slowed over the past few months, but activity levels remain resilient. Vacancies are higher than pre-pandemic and unemployment, while rising, is still at a low level by historic standards. The jobs market does now seem to be in a bit of a stand off with the wider economy, with both employers and candidates waiting to see how the economy develops before committing to new roles.

“This situation means there is a premium on getting growth going by injecting confidence into businesses and workers. With pay clearly moderating – and other surveys pointing to this continuing in the spring – and inflation falling, reducing interest rates would offer many hard-pressed businesses and workers a sign of progress.

“As the debates at Davos this week show, adapting to the changes to the labour market driven by technology and demographics will be vital to delivering sustainable, inclusive growth. But that requires people issues to be prioritised in government and by business leaders. Using the upcoming Budget to set out a change of pace on skills, welfare-to-work and business support would be welcome – as would a more sensible debate around the UK economy’s need for managed immigration. A fresh look at the Apprenticeship Levy – which business has called out as failing for almost a decade now – is essential.”

Matthew Percival, the Confederation of British Industry's Future of Work Director, said: “While there continue to be signs that the labour market is softening, it is happening slowly. Today’s data confirms that many businesses are still struggling to hire the people that they need, leading to higher employment costs that are putting pressure on prices.

“With an election fast approaching, all parties need to look at measures to support business investment as ultimately, it’s only productivity growth that can help to bring down inflationary pressures, create the capacity for sustainable growth and improve living standards.

“Difficulties hiring staff is still a drag on investment as firms redeploy funds to meet the short-term imperative of attracting the people they need, rather than prioritising long-term investment. That’s why businesses welcome steps to help more people into work, but reducing the availability of visas for skilled workers pushes in the opposite direction. An honest conversation about immigration would focus on how visa rules best support economic transformation and sustainable growth, beyond short-term fixes.”

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