School budgets predicted to go over cliff edge with £15.8 million budget gap predicted by March 2027

Figures show nearly all secondary and all ages schools facing financial crisis with one school forecasting a deficit of nearly £3 million by March 2027.

At a meeting of Powys County Council’s Learning and Skills scrutiny committee on Monday, July 15 councillors and lay independent members looked at schools financial performance for 2023/2024 and looked ahead to the budget plans for this financial year which also included the projections up to March 2027.

School governing bodies had been given a May 1 deadline to submit their budgets to the council.

School finance officer Nancy Owen explained that this year schools will receive 4.2 per cent more funding this year than last year.

This takes the total delegated schools budget up to £87.4 million- out of a total council budget of £340.7 million for this year.

But she stressed to the committee that future school budgets had to assume a “cash flat position” with no increase expected in the school’s delegated budget for several years.

This is due to the gloomy predictions that the Welsh Government will not increase funding to local authorities in the near future.

Ms Owen explained that for the 2024/2025 financial year schools have planned to spend £3.3 million more than the council has budgeted for them.

Considering movements from reserve accounts Ms Owen said: this would leave an estimate £2.4 million deficit at the end of the March 2025.

Liberal Democrat, Cllr Angela Davies was attending her first meeting of the Learning and Skills committee in just over two years, she had previously been a lay member before being elected to the council in May 2022.

Cllr Davies said: “Are we at the point where there is simply not enough money and no matter how much hand holding and officer support, schools will never be able to balance their budgets.

“It just feels like deja-vu – this support work has been done for years and here we are still with charts that have an awful lot of red.”

Ms Owen said that the council is “trying significantly” to suggest ways for schools to “mitigate” any problems that occur before getting into dire financial straits.

Ms Owen: “Ultimately it’s the governing bodies decision what budget it puts forward and once we have those, we work with them.”

Committee chairman, Conservative Cllr Gwynfor Thomas said: “We don’t underestimate the work that is going on, but we have some massive deficits and schools aren’t coping.

“School are saying to there’s no more low hanging fruit left, there’s nowhere to go and it’s either curriculum or teachers that are going by the wayside.”

He believed that “no matter” how much work was being on school budgets some just “can’t” get them to balance.

Conservative group leader Cllr Aled Davies stressed that the concerns should not just be financial but how this “impacts on pupils and the education they receive.”

He wanted to see how class sizes, teacher and support staff numbers had changed in recent years.

The report including comments from the scrutiny committee will be discussed by the Cabinet in a meeting at the end of the month.

The committee decided to enter confidential session to discuss individual school budget problems.

Predicted financial position of secondary schools in Powys:

Brecon High School – March 2024 £1,915,634 deficit – March 2025 £2,133,958 – March 2026 – £2,034,045 deficit – March 2027 – £1,994,775 deficit.

Crickhowell High School – March 2024 – £739,359 deficit – March 2025 – £700,206 deficit – March 2026 – £763,832 deficit – March 2027 – £1,024,932 deficit.

Gwernyfed High School – March 2024 £74,474 deficit – March 2025 – 28,956 surplus, March 2026 – £31,921 surplus – March 2027 – £155,218 deficit.

Llanidloes High School – March 2024 £146,616 surplus – March 2025 – £172,602 surplus – March 2026 – £89,065 surplus – March 2027 – £206,278 deficit.

Newtown High School – March 2024 – £226,146 surplus – March 2025 – £287,305 deficit – March 2026 – £1,532,966 deficit – March 2027 – £2,972,898 deficit.

Welshpool High School – March 2024 – £116,695 deficit – March 2025 – £251,743 deficit – March 2026 – £465,390 deficit – March 2027 – £886,426 deficit.

Ysgol Calon Cymru (Llandrindod Wells and Builth Wells) – March 2024 – £1,743,671 deficit – March 2025 – £1,831,833 deficit – March 2026 –£1,947,679 deficit – March 2027 – £2,106,304 deficit.

Ysgol Maesydderwen (Ystradgynlais) – March 2024 – £280,774 deficit – March 2025 – £480,925 deficit – March 2026 – £719,112 deficit – March 2027 – £1,251,184 deficit.

All age schools:

Ysgol Bro Hyddgen (Machynlleth) – March 2024 – £259,263 surplus – March 2025 – 18,816 surplus – March 2026 – (212,805) deficit – March 2027 – £440,646 deficit.

Ysgol Llanfyllin – March 2024 – 305,800 surplus – March 2025 – 41,071 surplus – March 2026 – £444,101 deficit – March 2027 – £994,265 deficit.

Ysgol Bro Caereinion (Llanfair Caereinion) – March 2024 – £107,250 surplus – March 2025 – £93,947 deficit – March 2026 – £277,715 deficit – March 2027 – £445,937 deficit.

All school totals for all primary, secondary, all through and special schools.

March 2024 -£891,622 surplus – March 2025 – £2,362,579 deficit – March 2026 – £7,587,737 deficit – March 2027 – £15,784,014 deficit.