My crystal ball's cloudy but get ready for a bumpy ride

A lot has happened in the political scene over the past week and that, combined with Christmas lethargy in the grain trade, means that we’re waiting for the dust to settle.

Let's study a few fundamentals before we throw Brexit or not into the cooking pot. A lot of compounders, when the market was flying in August, bought maize definitely for the October/December position and some for the January/ April position.

The knock on from that has led to a reduced demand for home grown grain. Add to that the mothballing of Vivergo and Ensus, the two big ethanol plants on the East, and all of a sudden we have changed from being net importers of grain to being net exporters of grain.

Some say if all things remain as they are that we could have an exportable surplus of around 1.2 million tonnes, which is more than we have exported for a while. The net result has been a fall in the wheat price from circa £200 to £165 now. I think the lesson there is, if there is a 2 in front of a figure that you are offered for wheat, sell it. Having said all that, the grain trade has picked up over the past 10 days.

Where will prices go? I am afraid to say that with so much political uncertainty about, my crystal ball is very very cloudy. One thing I can guarantee is that it will be a white knuckle ride.

On a cheerier note I have been given a lesson on how to sell. Mrs R and number two son went to Benno the vet for a course in how to inject ewes. Three hours later they reappeared with a certificate each and a sponging kit for 12 ewes – very impressive selling I thought! Having used said kit on a few Texel ewes it appears, much to the sheep department’s delight, that they have worked. We scanned at 163 per cent with only two empties, which for us is OK, and only two triplets.

Lambing starts in mid January which leads me nicely into wishing you a Merry Christmas and a Happy and not too uncertain New Year.

If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to phone the office on 01743 884717.

Dave Roberts, G.O. Davies (Westbury) Ltd