Whatever happens over Brexit, we'll still be here

Evidently don’t leave it to politicians to argue against whatever the opposition has just said, whether they agree with it or not. As the London bubble continues to play games furthering their own careers, what effect is it having on us in the sticks?

“Let’s see what happens with Brexit” is a catchphrase we are hearing a lot. Essentially, we do not know what will definitely happen but one thing is definite, we will still be here whether we leave or not.

Grain is being bought and sold forward to take positional cover and the majority of farmers have done the same on nitrogen fertilisers whether this be to take full cover in the new season, or a little then and looking to re-enter the market in the spring.

The national nitrogen market is behind on last year, and where this may be seen as advantageous for prices later on, deliveries will come under huge strain.

Last spring was seen by most as a disaster for deliveries for most merchants, blenders struggled to keep up with production and hauliers were overcome with a huge surge in orders and cancelled fixings in ports after products sold out.

If we are waiting for big drops in the spring, be wary. Hoping to save £10/tonne may look futile when chasing loads of fertiliser with growing crops and favourable weather conditions slipping by. This only ends with high blood pressures and loud conversations with fertiliser salesmen who are helplessly stuck in the middle and pass on complaints with even more volume and aggravation, especially when it’s his big brother taking the brunt.

This is the worst case scenario. We leave on the October 31without a deal. Praise anything Holy I hear you cry out in beautiful harmony, we never have to hear the word Brexit ever again! But before you organise a street party, there will be some issues. As it currently stands, all imported nitrogen will incur a 6.5 per cent tariff equating to £16/tonne on Lithan (Lithuanian AN) overnight, the Farmers Weekly reported a similar increase of six to nine per cent on liquid nitrogens on the back of anti-dumping tariff as well and solid urea will also be affected.

Couple this with the fact that our currency is likely to suffer as a result of leaving a strong global trade partner. This will mean that it will cost us more to import. Obviously we cannot put a figure on this but the repercussions are unlikely to favour us.

With increases being forced upon the import market our export will become more favourable which will put a higher demand on domestic N to go abroad so following the strains of supply and demand, domestic N would be expected to rise as well.

Add on to the higher price the fact it might be late being delivered and the picture does start to look bleak.

Ed Roberts, of G.O Davies (Westbury) Ltd, a privately-owned grain merchant operating across Wales and the West Midlands.