Top analyst projects potential boost for Welsh red meat producers
Supply and demand pressures at home and abroad are likely to support both Welsh Lamb and Welsh Beef for at least another 12 months, a leading red meat analyst told delegates at Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) recent conference.
“On the whole, it’s a positive story at the moment," said Edward Brown, Consultant at GIRA.
"Farmgate prices are really strong and that’s because of the fundamental underlying strong demand when, at the same time, supplies are staying relatively tight.
“So, from the prices point of view, it’s relatively positive in the short-term outlook.”
Setting the scene, Mr. Brown said in recent years, the global red meat industry had suffered a number of “disrupters”, including ASF, HPAI, Covid, El Nino weather pattern and drought.
“In China, for instance, ASF reduced the pig stock by half- and to show the importance of that, China had half of the global pig stock before that happened.”
Mr Brown said high quality beef and lamb was in strong global demand, and especially with Welsh Lamb and Welsh Beef’s most significant export customer, the European Union.
“This demand is likely to remain because EU production is going to continue to become tighter," he said.
"Flock data over the past decade suggests EU contraction - and yes, there is evidence that the same is happening in the UK - but the EU is definitely contracting quicker and it’s facing increasing regulations, such as the EU green deal and CAP reform.
“Yet as the flock continues to contract in the EU - for the first seven to eight months of the year production was down three and a half per cent across the EU 27 - their consumers are still showing strong demand for red meat,” said Mr. Brown.
He said the equivalent prices in Europe for heavy lamb were well above UK levels and it was the same for beef prices.
“Gira’s price forecast covers up to 12 months ahead," he said. "The expectation is that beef prices will also remain at a similar level maybe even slightly higher.”
Mr Brown highlighted opportunities for premium product within the global marketplace.
“There are pretty good market prospects if you are a supplier of good quality lamb- like Welsh Lamb- and you’re in a position to highlight the sustainability plusses as well. Traceability is also becoming an increasingly important driver in trade and in the EU, for example, a fully traceable supply chain and its farm assurance position will stand Wales in very good stead.”
Regarding stocking and maintaining critical mass, Mr. Brown said: “The threat to the UK is remaining viable within the scale we have got and remaining competitive in a market where there are a lot of external pressures.”
