The lessons of history hang over parliament
When the Queen delivered the Government's legislative programme for the forthcoming Parliamentary session last week, some observers commented on the fact that she wore a smaller, lighter, crown than the one traditionally used on such occasions.
One explanation given was that the Imperial State Crown, adorned with 2,868 diamonds, 269 pearls, 17 sapphires and 11 emeralds, was now too heavy for the 93-year-old monarch to bear. Those of a more cynical persuasion might suggest that, given the likelihood of the Queen's speech actually being delivered, Her Majesty could have been forgiven for turning up in a shell suit and hoodie.
MPs are expected to vote on the first Queen's Speech in more than two years today. Normally, such votes are a mere formality, a public demonstration that the Government has the confidence of Parliament. But we live in far from normal times.
And while the past few weeks have told us it would be foolish to rule anything out, all the signs are that Boris Johnson will shortly become only the fourth British prime minister in history to see his legislative programme defeated.
While that would normally be followed by the instant resignation of the incumbent prime minister, the topsy-turvy nature of politics today means he is likely to become the first PM to actually survive a defeat.
And, as a keen student of history, Mr Johnson will no doubt be aware that previous last prime minister to suffer this ignominious defeat – Stanley Baldwin in 1924 – had the last laugh when he was returned to office months later with one of the biggest majorities in history.
Like Mr Johnson today, Baldwin had only been in office for a matter of months when he was defeated. And just as today, it happened at a time when the old political order was breaking down.
The Liberal Party, which up until then vied with the Conservatives to be the main party of government, split into two factions in 1922 – Herbert Henry Asquith's Liberal Party and David Lloyd George's National Liberals. The General Election of October that year saw Labour overtake both Liberal parties to become the principal opposition. It also saw the Conservatives, under Bonar Law, win a clear majority, but he would not be PM for long. The following May he was diagnosed with terminal throat cancer, which also left him unable to address the Commons, and he resigned immediately.
He was succeeded by Baldwin. A Bewdley lad to his fingertips, he was born and raised in the town, and represented the constituency for 29 years. But while Law had been elected on a pledge of not introducing import tariffs, tough economic conditions and rising unemployment convinced Baldwin that they were necessary. So he called an election in December 1923 to seek a fresh mandate.
But just as Ted Heath discovered in 1974, and Theresa May in 2017, snap general elections called on specific issues do not always go according to plan. Baldwin lost his majority.
As with Brexit, import tariffs proved a divisive battleground, with the Liberals – now reunited under Asquith – fighting the election on a free trade ticket. The 1923 election saw Baldwin's Conservatives return with 258 seats, Labour with 191, and the Liberals with 158, a three-way split which proved impossible to reconcile. When Baldwin presented his King's Speech to the Commons in January, 1924, it was defeated by 72 votes. Baldwin resigned immediately, his 10 months in office only three months longer than Law's.
However, it proved to be far from the end for Baldwin. On his resignation, he advised the King to appoint Labour's Ramsay MacDonald, as leader of the second largest party, to form a new government, which he did with the support of the Liberals. But while MacDonald took his place in history as the first Labour prime minister, there was precious little goodwill between Asquith and the PM.
Within months Asquith tabled a no-confidence motion in the Government, gambling that neither Baldwin nor MacDonald would want to avoid putting the country through a third election in as many years, and that one of them would instead seek a formal coalition with the Liberals. It was a move that would backfire spectacularly.
Despite knowing that the election would almost certainly result in a Tory landslide, MacDonald also calculated that it would secure Labour's position as the second largest party at Westminster, and send the Liberals into irreversible decline.
His hunch proved correct.
On October 29, 1924, Baldwin was returned as PM with a massive 209-seat majority. But while MacDonald's first term as PM was shortlived, the real loser was the man who brought down his government. Not only did Asquith's Liberals come a dismal third, with just 40 seats, but Asquith himself lost his seat in Paisley.
It was an election which would change the political landscape for generations. Asquith's decision to first back MacDonald, and then pull the rug from under him has been debated for decades. Some have said he had little choice, others have argued that it was a catastrophic misjudgement which finished the Liberals off as a major political force.
Either way, from then on it would be the Conservatives and Labour that would dominate the battles for No. 10, with the Liberals reduced to third party status.
