Track and trace vital to prevent a second wave of Covid-19
Think we are over the worst? Beware what may be to come.
That is the warning of experts who today warned that our global pandemic is far from beaten.
One health expert has warned that the world is still in the midst of the “first wave” of the coronavirus pandemic. The key to preventing a second is to track, trace – and fundamentally change the way we live our lives.
World Health Organisation executive director Dr Mike Ryan says the risks of reigniting coronavirus outbreaks are complicating efforts to fend off further misery for the many millions who have lost their jobs.
Dr Ryan said: “Right now, we’re not in the second wave. We’re right in the middle of the first wave globally.
“We’re still very much in a phase where the disease is actually on the way up.”
Dr Ryan pointed to South America, South Asia and other areas where the number of infections is still on the rise.
And, while the UK looks for a way out of lockdown, there are many examples of areas of the globe where fresh infections have come following a relaxation.
The message is clear: Do not for a minute think coronavirus will simply go away. Britain may be winning this current battle but it cannot win the war unless a genuine cure or vaccine is developed.
South Korea is one example of a country where the population may have thought the virus was beaten, only for it to return.
A fortnight after South Korea’s latest spike in coronavirus cases – an outbreak linked to nightclubs in Itaewon, Seoul’s self styled gay district – the capital is still reeling from the resurgence of a pandemic it thought was safely under control.
“Itaewon is one of the hottest spots in the city for partying,” says Zach Benson, an entrepreneur living in Seoul. “Right now it’s like a ghost town. Same for Hongdae. It’s usually one of the places where everybody goes for outside shopping and street markets, but now there are hardly any people there.”
Worried
Within two weeks of the new outbreak – believed to have begun in the early hours of May 2 – South Korea had recorded 257 new cases of Covid-19, more than double the number in the previous fortnight. For many Koreans, this sudden spate of infections brought back the memories and fears from the original outbreak in the southern city of Daegu at the end of February.
There are lessons to be learned in South Korea for the UK. The track and trace app currently trialling on the Isle of Wight is yet to be expanded and plans for a UK system of monitoring sufferers of the virus and then contacting those they have been in contact with is still not developed fully. Britain will eventually move to a system of local lockdowns, where areas of new infection are placed under measures while parts of the country get more freedom. But that also relies on openness and honesty from the community when there is an outbreak.
“One of the reasons why the virus spread so rapidly in Daegu was because the Shincheonji Church were hesitant to share the list of people at their gatherings with the government,” says Hayeon Kim, who works in TV production in Seoul. “So it took time before these people could be found and tested.
“Now because the centre of this latest outbreak is a gay club, and in South Korea we’re a bit conservative when it comes to sexual identity, the people who were there that night are worried to come forwards for testing. But that’s made a lot of people very concerned that this is how the virus will start to spread again.”
Notable
Over the past three months, South Korea has won widespread plaudits for how it effectively stopped coronavirus in its tracks. Even now, it has only experienced just over 11,000 cases of coronavirus, having had 9,786 at the end of March. Much of this owes to lessons learnt from the country’s 2015 Mers outbreak. While this only resulted in a relatively benign toll of 186 cases and 36 deaths in comparison to Covid-19, it meant that a number of response measures were put in place for a future crisis.
The most notable of these is a contact tracing regime far more intricate than that in the UK. It utilises credit card records, mobile phone tracking, and GPS location data to track previous movements of infected individuals.
“Whenever new confirmed cases are found, the KCDC sends text messages to people who live or work nearby,” says Eunha Shim, an epidemiologist at Soongsil University in Seoul. “You can also go to a website and find out information about those cases. This ranges from a list of the places they visited in the last couple of days, their age and gender, whether they were wearing a mask the entire time or not, and whether their house has been disinfected or not.”
While this level of surveillance would likely be unpopular in many countries including Britain, it has played a key role in Korea’s ability to quickly flatten the curve.
The South Korean example offers us all an insight into the challenge ahead – and the question of just how willing we are for the state to snoop into our lives to ensure the health of an entire population.
