Elections: Opinion poll analysis shows size of mountain Tories will have to climb in Dudley

According to the BBC’s average of opinion polls Labour has had a whopping lead over the last 12 months, on 45 per cent of voting intentions, while the Conservatives have just 23 per cent.

Tory woes are made worse because their direct competitors for right-wing votes, Reform UK, are in third with 11 per cent while the Lib Dems are fourth on nine per cent.

Stourbridge’s Conservative MP, Suzanne Webb, said: “I think everyone always needs to take polls with a pinch of salt. The challenge now is to go out and make the case for this government’s sound policies and how we have turned the economic situation around with a plan that is working.

“I think the polls will narrow. I think the Prime Minister knows this and I salute him for putting this decision to the country at a crucial time for us all.”

Transferring the statistics into the outcome if the election was held tomorrow, Labour would claim 479 House of Commons seats of the 650 up for grabs.

The Tories would slump to 92 seats, with the Lib Dems making big gains to take 44 seats while, because their vote is spread across the UK, Reform would finish without an MP.

According to the forecast, from electoralcalculus.co.uk, the remaining parliamentary seats would go to the Green Party, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

The respected pollster website has grim predictions for borough MPs.

In the new constituency of Dudley, Labour are given a 70 per cent chance of winning with 40 per cent of the vote to overturn a Tory majority from the last general election in 2019 of more than 11,000.

While historically Dudley has been traditional Labour territory, Stourbridge has been held by both parties in recent decades although the constituency has been in Tory hands since 2010.

Despite a majority of more than 13,000, the electoralcalculus.co.uk prediction suggests a 77 per cent chance of Labour taking the seat with nearly 12 percent more of the vote than the Conservatives.

The Tory cause may not be helped in Stourbridge after boundary changes which pushed areas which usually support Labour like Netherton and Holly Hall into the constituency.

The constituency of Halesowen and Rowley Regis has been in Tory hands since 2010 and last time delivered a majority of 12,000.

This constituency has also had big boundary changes, it is now named just Halesowen and the predictor delivers a hit for the Conservatives.

Electoral Calculus says Labour currently has an 81 per cent chance of gaining Halesowen with a 42 percent vote share.

The magic number for the big parties is 326 seats in the House of Commons to have an overall majority.