General Election 2017: Shropshire Star poll is good news for Corbyn

Opinions have shifted somewhat since our poll three weeks ago, and it is former Shropshire schoolboy Jeremy Corbyn who has benefited most from the past few weeks campaigning.

It is likely the results are somewhat influenced by Mr Corbyn's enthusiastic supporters – the Labour leader's activists have clearly been encouraged to engage with the survey. Conservatives would, with some justification, say that a large groundswell of people in Shropshire who may not be inclined to take part in the poll would nevertheless vote Tory.

However there is no doubt that Mr Corbyn has been an effective campaigner, and that has been reflected in today's results.

When we asked earlier this month who would make the most effective prime minister, present incumbent Theresa May was way out in front, attracting 65 per cent of the votes cast. Mr Corbyn, who grew up in Pave Lane, near Newport, was a distant second on 18 per cent.

This time around, though, the roles are reversed, with Mr Corbyn backed by 51 per cent, comfortably ahead of Mrs May on 39 per cent. Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron comes in third place on eight per cent, while the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon and Ukip's Paul Nuttall bring up the rear on one per cent each.

When asked who has been the most effective campaigner since the election was called, Mr Corbyn's lead is slightly greater, with him polling 53 per cent to Mrs May's 36 per cent.

Again, caution must be used when interpreting the results. When asked how people will vote, the Shropshire Star survey gives Labour a 20 per cent lead, polling 53 per cent to the Conservatives' 33 per cent. Given that this contradicts most of the mainstream opinion polls, and indeed the modern electoral history of Shropshire and mid-Wales, it would be fair to conclude that a disproportionate number of Labour supporters took part our survey.

This should not come as too much of a surprise, given the rousing reception the Labour leader has received at his rallies around the country, despite polls continually suggesting he is less popular than Mrs May.

A likely explanation is that while Conservative support is broader than that of Labour, it is perhaps not as deep. Anecdotal evidence would certainly suggest that Corbyn supporters in particular feel more strongly about their politics than Conservatives do, which might explain why more of them took part in our poll.

Indeed, those on the right might point out that the figures suggest that even among Labour voters, not all think Mr Corbyn would make the best prime minister, while Mrs May polls slightly above her party in popularity.

However, the figures do also suggest that the public has reacted positively to the launch of Labour's manifesto, which included proposals to nationalise the railways and postal service, and create a state-owned energy company. The poll revealed that 56 per cent thought that Labour had done the best job of getting its message across in the campaign, which suggests that view is shared by some non-Labour voters too. The number who thought the Conservatives had got their message across best was 33 per cent, the same number as intended voting Conservative.

Just over a quarter of those who took part said their views had been changed by the party manifestos – a minority, but significant enough to have a big influence on the result.

As was the case with our previous poll, the health service and Brexit were identified as the main issues of concern. However, while the number citing health as the most important issue rose from 37 per cent to 48 per cent, those who thought Brexit most important fell from 36 per cent to 21 per cent.

The economy and immigration were the next most important issues, on 11 per cent and 9 per cent respectively.

Both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn declined to take part in the recent television debates, and the decision does not appear to have gone down well with readers. More than seven in 10 voters thought they should have taken part, with less than three in 10 supporting their refusal.

The survey also suggests that, at least for those took part, that nothing that takes part during between now and polling day is likely to have any significant impact on the result.

A total of 94 per cent said they had already made their minds up about how they were going to vote, with just six per cent saying they were yet to decide.