Brexit means Brexit . . . doesn't it?
Two years is a long time in politics. But what has actually happened? Mark Andrews reports.
June 23, 2016, there was a nervous tension as people began filtering into the hall at Telford College of Technology.
A few sat in the canteen, others went into the main canteen where the massed tellers fastidiously shuffled ballot papers into different piles in a hushed silence. Telford MP Lucy Allan was in a buoyant mood, but others in the room – on both sides of the debate – were more apprehensive. You could cut the atmosphere with a knife as people waited with bated breath for the big news. And then came the bombshell.
It will be two years tomorrow since Britain voted to leave the European Union.
While the results in Shropshire and Telford & Wrekin did not come as a huge surprise – in Shropshire, 57 per cent voted to leave, in Telford the figure was 63 per cent – the national result came like a bolt from the blue.
Ukip’s Nigel Farage, who hours earlier, had said he expected to narrowly lose the vote, was calling for a new national holiday. David Cameron, whose position had looked unassailable since his surprise election victory the previous year, announced his resignation. And Boris Johnson suddenly seemed a shoe-in as Britain’s next prime minister.
Two years, it’s a long time in politics.
The aftermath of the referendum saw a major shake-up of the political landscape. Theresa May, a low-key supporter of the Remain campaign in the run-up to the referendum, was the surprise choice as David Cameron’s successor following a fall-out between Mr Johnson and fellow Brexiteer Michael Gove.
After years on the backbenches, David Davis and Dr Liam Fox were propelled back into the spotlight, charged with negotiating the terms of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. Then last year, new prime minister Mrs May called a snap general election to strengthen her hand – only for the predicted landslide to turn into a humiliation as Mrs May lost her majority and was forced to do a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.
Opposing views:
It was not just the Conservatives that were thrown into turmoil either. The weekend after the vote, Jeremy Corbyn was left reeling from mass resignations from his shadow cabinet over his handling of the referendum, and his perceived lukewarm support for the Remain campaign.
But two years on from the poll, the public mood of insurgency appears to have given way to apathy as people have grown weary about the protracted negotiations.
Both sides of debate united – just get on with it!
Brexit was an issue that divided Britain like few others, with public opinion split down the middle. But two years on, people in Oakengates seem united on one thing – frustration at the way negotiations are proceeding.
“It’s a disaster,” says 52-year-old Trevor Dobbins, who is preparing to tuck into his lunch at the Forge Urban Renewal Cafe in Theatre Square.
“I thought it would be a disaster to start with, and now we can see how disastrous it will be,” adds the contractor, who works for the Ministry of Defence.
His colleague Gary Wilson, 49, agrees, although he says much of the damage to the economy is down to fears and uncertainty about what might happen. “The economy is not looking good,” he says. “However, I do think that is a little bit down to idle threats that are being made.”
Cafe worker Nicola Bierton is also unhappy. “I think Theresa May is doing everything wrong,” says the 45-year-old from Wellington, who voted to stay in the EU two years ago. “I’m worried about the changes that might come.”
Susan Mitchell, a member of the craft group which meets at the cafe, said Brexit negotiations had not gone as she would have expected.
“I voted to leave, but if I had known everything that is going on now, I would have voted to stay,” she says.
The group leader, Mary Lewis, 40, from Lightmoor, says she never wanted to leave the EU in the first place. “It’s a monumental waste of time, and I think it makes us more vulnerable,” she says. “We have had peace in Europe for 50 years, but by fragmenting more we will become more vulnerable.”
Walking along Limes Walk, Celia Owen, of Oakengates, is unhappy with the handling of negotiations for very different reasons, declaring: “I think it’s rubbish, we should just walk away and leave the EU totally. We should go back to having our own rules and regulations.”
Over at the Celebrations Card shop, manager Jennifer Orr, 56, also voted to leave, and she too is unhappy with the pace of the negotiations, saying: “I think we should be leaving, I think we just need to take control. I don’t think Theresa May’s doing a very good job, it seems to be very slow, and everybody’s fighting against one another.”
Roger Overton, 48, from Woodside, is clearing the street of leaves. He voted to remain, but thinks we now have to accept we are leaving: “I voted to stay in because I thought we were doing all right, but we might as well get on with it now.”
Back in the cafe, Fran Griffiths, 60, from Wellington, says: “I was disappointed when they held the referendum that neither side of the argument presented the facts properly – both sides were lied to. It was an invalid referendum.”
Indifference rules in nationwide survey
Tom Clarkson and Gemma Mehmed of the think-tank Britain Thinks this month marked the anniversary by presenting the results of a detailed nationwide survey.
And their main finding was that the passion of two years ago and now been replaced by a weary indifference.
“The most important findings are that Brexit is not a front-of-mind concern,” says Mr Clarkson.
“Swing segments have disengaged from it. Concern about Brexit going badly centres on the length of time it is taking, rather than the process of negotiations.”
And while Mrs May has had her work cut out this week staving off the threat of rebellion on the Brexit Bill, it seems that the general public is largely indifferent to proceedings.
At first glance, it seems people are worried about the consequences of not reaching a deal, with 57 per cent saying they were worried about the consequences.
But Mr Clarkson adds: “There is considerable confusion about what ‘no deal’ would mean.
“Some worry that ‘no deal’ will mean that the UK cannot leave the EU, while others think it will mean that the UK can walk away and be free to do what it wants.
“Once explained, few think that the consequences will be particularly disastrous. Leaving the EU is a greater priority for many than leaving with a good deal.
“Swing voters know very little about a ‘no deal’ scenario, and aren’t worrying.”
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The study divided Britons into four categories: Die-hards, who were pleased with the result and had no concerns about leaving; Cautious Optimists, who were pleased with the result, but had reservations; Accepting Pragmatists, who were disappointed by the result, but could see some benefits in leaving, and Devastated Pessimists who were disappointed by the result and could see no positives in quitting the EU.
The research found that while a majority still wanted to leave the EU, there had been a marked shift in the strength of these convictions, with resolve appearing to have softened slightly from Leave voters, while hardening among Remain supporters.
Thirteen months ago, 37 per cent were identified as Die-Hard leave supporters, and this has now fallen to 32 per cent. In contrast, 30 per cent were identified as Devastated Pessimists last year, rising to 32 per cent today.
One thing both sides agreed on was a dissatisfaction with the way that the Government was handling the negotiations, although it seems the Brexiteers were happier than the EU supporters.
When asked if the Government was doing a good job, 38 per cent of Die-Hard Brexiteers said they thought it was, compared to 23 per cent of Cautious Optimist Brexit supporters. At the other end of the scale, only seven per cent of hard-line Remain supporters were happy with the Government’s handling of the situation, and 27 per cent of Accepting Pragmatists thought the Government was doing a good job.
Mr Clarkson said the biggest cause of people’s dissatisfaction was the time the negotiations were taking, rather than the direction the talks were heading in.
“Belief that Brexit is going badly is driven by a lack of progress, rather than the perceived quality of the progress,” he says.
“Swing voters are far more concerned with why we haven’t left the EU yet, or why they haven’t heard about any progress, rather than how negotiations are going.” Perhaps this is to be predicted. While the referendum campaign polarised opinion with snappy soundbites and appeals to the senses, the negotiations were always going to be somewhat arcane.
Speaking on the first anniversary of the vote last year, Prof Andy Westwood of Wolverhampton University said many of the finer points of the negotiations will fail to capture the public’s imagination.
“I think the level of detail and complexities behind issues about technicalities do not lend themselves to media coverage,” he said.
Prof Westwood said many of the delays would be less about disagreements about policy, and more to do with the technical complexities surrounding EU legislation.
Certainly, amid all the complexities surrounding trade deals, “hard” or “soft” Brexit, Customs Unions and border agreements, it is difficult to gauge how close Britain is to securing an agreement, or whether we will walk away without a deal.
But whatever happens, one thing is certain. Britain is due to leave the EU in March next year.
Two years might be a long time in politics. But nine months does not seem very long at all.
