Political column – April 18

The order has obviously gone out from new Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

His fresh team has been told to hold the government to account, which is of course what the Opposition should do.

In the current crisis, there is a twist, because when the government minister takes to the podium at one of those daily news conferences at 10 Downing Street, he or she is accompanied by a bodyguard of experts. And you can't argue with experts, can you?

When Sir Keir, leading from the front, popped up on the radio the other day calling for the government to publish its strategy to exit the lockdown, interviewer Nick Robinson pointed out that health experts were saying it was too early to be talking about that. Were they wrong?

Yes, said Sir Keir.

So that's it then, the new Labour leader thinks he knows better than the experts.

It was Michael Gove who so famously said that "people in this country have had enough of experts" and was derided and mocked by Labour, and others, for doing so.

What a fool, ignoring the advice of experts!

But I totally got what he was getting at. What he was getting at was that the people who are often held up as experts, and present themselves as experts, have an alleged expertise which does not stand up to the acid test of actually getting things right.

In other words, they weren't experts in the first place, just people who made wrong predictions with an air of confidence.

This was proven conclusively during the banking crisis and resulting economic crash which finance experts failed to predict, because their so-called expertise was actually in making money for themselves in the good times.

They would go on the telly and the radio described as an "economic expert." But where was any proof of that? How were their wrong predictions of any more value than that of, say, an astrologer?

Every man-made disaster in history has behind it an expert who got things wrong. Okay, that might be an exaggeration. But the Tay Bridge was built by experts. Experts used to think that the world was flat. The Captain of the Titanic was an expert, and experienced as well.

That is not to say that experts don't exist. There are people who are expert at, say, maths, solving simultaneous equations, and that sort of thing. If you've got a leaking pipe, it's better to get a plumber in who knows what he or she is doing than having a go yourself if you're not sure.

And while I would contend that economists and bankers have not, based on results, proved markedly any more expert on predicting things than the treasurer at your local Darby and Joan club, I would concede that they probably have fancy modelling which can produce seductively convincing data of the "if this, that" variety.

What we have to be careful of is confusing expertise with judgment. I think that's probably what Sir Keir was driving at when he said the experts were wrong. Or rather he didn't actually say that as such, but what he said amounted to saying that.

It is possible to be an acknowledged "expert," but also to make really bad judgments.

In the field of medicine, if you need a heart transplant, you want a heart transplant expert to do it. But there is a judgment call to be made on whether a heart transplant is needed. Heart transplant experts might disagree among themselves on that.

And in this coronavirus crisis, those Downing Street press conference experts are not experts in coronavirus because, if you listen to what they say, they say that there is an awful lot we don't know about coronavirus.

They are in the dark too. More informed in the dark, but still in the dark. Only in the future will we know if their judgments were right.

I'm not saying don't believe the experts. I'm saying that just because they say something, doesn't necessarily mean they're right.

You see, if you stop questioning experts, or indeed "experts," you are setting them up not to be experts, but gods.

...........

Buns, biscuits, and Mr Blobby.

I think that just about sums up the working-from-home experience.

At work, I take in sandwiches. Once they're gone, they're gone. At home, I'm not far at any time from what they used to call the pantry. And the fridge.

For some reason, essential sustenance in our household has tended to rely on snacks. Those snacks keep me going until meal times.

This is offset by just one allowed session of daily exercise, which in my case is walking the dogs.

I have a vision of what will happen at the end of the lockdown. A lot of rotund Britons will emerge into the light, all with long hair, and if like me they walk dogs, they will be rather portly, shaggy dogs.