General Election: Top target seats, by party

The election is being held using new constituency boundaries, which means the results cannot be compared directly with what happened at the last general election in 2019.

To measure how well the parties do at the election, and to determine which seats they need to win to form a government, a set of notional results for the 2019 election has been calculated to show what would have happened if that contest had taken place using the new boundaries.

These notional results have been compiled by Professor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, on behalf of the PA news agency, the BBC, ITN and Sky News.

The lists of target seats are based on the size of the swing needed to gain the seat based on the notional outcome in 2019.

The top 100 targets have been listed for Labour and the Conservatives, the top 50 for the Liberal Democrats, and the top 10 for other parties (top nine for the SNP, as they can only make a maximum of nine gains).

The lists are ranked according to the size of the swing to gain, starting with the smallest.

The name of the constituency is followed in brackets by the notional 2019 winner of the seat, then by the size of the swing needed to gain, in percentage points.

Where appropriate, the swing takes account of the need to overtake the second placed party.

– Labour targets

1 Burnley (Con) 0.13 percentage points

2 Leigh & Atherton (Con) 0.33

3 High Peak (Con) 0.54

4 Bangor Aberconwy (Con) 0.77

5 Wolverhampton West (Con) 0.92

6 Bury South (Con) 0.94

7 Bury North (Con) 1.20

8 Bolton North East (Con) 1.28

9 Watford (Con) 1.35

10 Chingford & Woodford Green (Con) 1.47

11 Wycombe (Con) 1.59

12 Birmingham Northfield (Con) 1.69

13 Leeds North West (Con) 1.80

14 Stroud (Con) 2.03

15 Keighley & Ilkley (Con) 2.11

16 Stoke-on-Trent Central (Con) 2.11

17 Whitehaven & Workington (Con) 2.17

18 Lothian East (SNP) 2.17

19 Gedling (Con) 2.22

20 Walsall & Bloxwich (Con) 2.40

21 Peterborough (Con) 2.47

22 Vale of Glamorgan (Con) 2.57

23 West Bromwich (Con) 2.60

24 Cheshire Mid (Con) 2.66

25 Wakefield & Rothwell (Con) 2.67

26 Ynys Mon (Con) 2.69

27 Derby North (Con) 2.70

28 Bridgend (Con) 2.73

29 Clwyd North (Con) 2.76

30 Lancaster & Wyre (Con) 3.05

31 Hastings & Rye (Con) 3.36

32 Eltham & Chislehurst (Con) 3.37

33 Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy (SNP) 3.41

34 Lincoln (Con) 3.47

35 Hyndburn (Con) 3.48

36 Broxtowe (Con) 3.58

37 Chipping Barnet (Con) 3.60

38 Northampton North (Con) 3.85

39 Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor (Con) 3.93

40 Hendon (Con) 4.01

41 Truro & Falmouth (Con) 4.04

42 Wrexham (Con) 4.18

43 Hull West & Haltemprice (Con) 4.35

44 Blackpool South (Con) 4.36

45 Calder Valley (Con) 4.52

46 Milton Keynes Central (Con) 4.70

47 Southampton Itchen (Con) 4.74

48 Clwyd East (Con) 5.00

49 Glasgow North East (SNP) 5.01

50 Darlington (Con) 5.36

51 Redcar (Con) 5.45

52 Ipswich (Con) 5.53

53 Coatbridge & Bellshill (SNP) 5.54

54 Altrincham & Sale West (Con) 5.61

55 Swindon South (Con) 5.70

56 Cities of London & Westminster (Con) 5.73

57 Airdrie & Shotts (SNP) 5.74

58 Bolsover (Con) 5.77

59 Shipley (Con) 5.78

60 Crewe & Nantwich (Con) 5.79

61 Loughborough (Con) 5.90

62 Midlothian (SNP) 5.92

63 Rutherglen (SNP) 5.97

64 Tipton & Wednesbury (Con) 6.14

65 Rushcliffe (Con) 6.18

66 Norwich North (Con) 6.31

67 Spen Valley (Con) 6.42

68 Glasgow South West (SNP) 6.43

69 Milton Keynes North (Con) 6.55

70 Worcester (Con) 6.64

71 Glasgow North (SNP) 6.72

72 Rother Valley (Con) 6.74

73 Southport (Con) 6.80

74 Ashfield (Con) 6.81

75 Shrewsbury (Con) 6.96

76 Worthing East & Shoreham (Con) 7.03

77 Caerfyrddin (Con) 7.04

78 Penistone & Stocksbridge (Con) 7.28

79 Barrow & Furness (Con) 7.43

80 Ceredigion Preseli (Plaid Cymru) 7.49

81 Colne Valley (Con) 7.50

82 Filton & Bradley Stoke (Con) 7.61

83 Glasgow East (SNP) 7.62

84 Uxbridge & South Ruislip (Con) 7.82

85 Pembrokeshire Mid & South (Con) 7.84

86 Thanet East (Con) 7.91

87 Corby & East Northamptonshire (Con) 8.05

88 Leeds South West & Morley (Con) 8.16

89 Hamilton & Clyde Valley (SNP) 8.18