Where I expect 'Portillo Moments' to happen on general election night
Tomorrow’s the big day. Voters can look forward to delivering a swathe of Portillo Moments as they eject a ruling party that’s left us all worse off after 14 years in charge.
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Iain Duncan Smith is the one most likely to fall, in Chingford and Woodford Green. The former Tory leader’s majority has been eroded over time as voters in his constituency have become younger and more diverse. Presently, he has a majority of just over 1,000, though a split between former Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen and her successor means Duncan Smith may just survive.
Grant Shapps seems to have done just about every job other than PM, and he seems to have supported the many PM’s who’ve been through Downing Street’s revolving door. His majority is around 11,000, which in normal circumstances would be considered healthy and defendable. These are not normal circumstances, however, and the veteran Cabinet minister will be eyeing the Welwyn Hatfield count nervously.
Liam Fox has an even bigger majority of more than 17,000 in North Somerset. The polls say even that might not be enough to save him from defeat, as he faces being swept away by Labour’s tide.
Transport Secretary Mark Harper finds himself in a similar position, defending a majority of over 15,000 in the Forest of Dean seat. It was held by Labour under Tony Blair’s leadership and may switch back again.
