Montgomeryshire general election guide 2017 - Seat facing changes to its boundaries in future

Previously a safe haven for the Liberal Democrats, Mr Davies ousted Lembit Opik back in 2010 and has held onto the seat since.

In the 2015 election, Mr Davies became the first Tory to retain the Montgomeryshire seat, winning with an increased majority. He secured15,204 votes, up from 13,976 in 2010.

With concerns over proposed boundary changes, Mr Davies had said he would not stand for election if his seat was broken up, but this time plans to fight as his seat will not be affected by proposed boundary changes for this year’s poll, with it being a snap election.

And the odds are looking good for him to once again retain his seat, with Paddy Power putting his chances at 1/9.

The odds for the Liberal Democrats’ election bid, being led by Jane Dodds, are placed at 4/1.

The other parties don’t look set to rock the boat, according to the bookies who put UKIP’s odds at 100/1, Green’s at 80/1, and Labour and Plaid Cymru, both at 66/1.

The big issues Montgomeryshire faces include much of what’s been at the forefront of residents’ minds for a number of years now including cross-border health services. Many of the area’s constituents rely heavily on health services across the English border in Shrewsbury.

There are concerns about the future of health services in Shropshire and Mid Wales is waiting to find out whether Shrewsbury will retain its A&E.

But residents remain in limbo, as the independent review into Future Fit has still has not made any progress, three months after it announced it would take place and three years after the words Future Fit were first uttered by people in Shropshire and Mid Wales.

Wind power is another long-standing, controversial issue in the region, and currently residents are awaiting the results of a revised Renewable Energy Assessment needed as part of the Powys Local Development Plan, due to be published later this month.

The Local Development Plan could pave the way for more wind and solar developments in the county.

Residents and politicians are also waiting to find out whether the Secretary of State will decide to reopen a public inquiry to build wind farms at Llanbrynmair and Carnedd Wen, which had been thrown out by the government in 2015.

Last year 53.7 per cent of Powys voters voted to leave the EU. Voters will be eager to discover how Brexit will affect them, particularly as agriculture is one of Montgomeryshire’s biggest industries, local farmers will also be keen to discover what impact that will have on them and their livelihoods.

Mr Davies, a big supporter of Britain’s exit from the EU and a big supporter of Prime Minister Theresa May, will hope the electorate feels the same.

If the Powys County Council elections are anything to go by, he might be in luck as despite the fact the Independents remain the largest number of councillors on the council, it was the Conservatives who were the real winners of the election.

The Tories are now the largest political party on Powys County Council with 19 seats – 14 of which are in Montgomeryshire, which indicates Montgomeryshire might remain blue come June 8.

With so many different issues cast under the spotlight, it’s difficult to make a cast-iron prediction on which way residents will vote.

Meet the candidates

Glyn Davies – Conservative

Glyn Davies has been the MP for Montgomeryshire since 2010 and says it has been a wonderful privilege. He has been involved in farming all his life and at the age of 50 he attended Aberystwyth University where he gained a Diploma in International Law and Politics. He was a district council chairman and a member of the Welsh Assembly. He said: “The constituency is my home, always has been and always will be. My family roots are buried deep in the hills of Montgomeryshire, it has driven my love for the countryside and underpins my determination to protect it from insensitive developments such as windfarms and pylons.”

Iwan Wyn Jones – Labour

The Labour Party candidate for the Montgomeryshire constituency is Iwan Wyn Jones. Iwan is from Caernarfon and has just completed his studies at Aberystwyth University. He said: “I look forward to demonstrating that the Labour Party is a resurgent party with policies to repair the damage that the Tories have been doing to our country.”

Aled Morgan – Plaid Cymru

Mr Morgan grew up in Dolanog and now lives in Llangadfan. He is a fluent Welsh speaker. A former National Chair of Plaid Cymru Youth, Aled studied for an undergraduate and postgraduate degree in politics at Aberystwyth University. He’s currently a research student in politics at Cardiff University.He said: “With discussions ongoing on the terms of Brexit, we now need to ensure Wales’ voice in Westminster is as strong as it has ever been to secure the best deal for our communities here in Montgomeryshire.

“So far, Wales and its communities have been forgotten by Westminster – we’re seeing Gibraltar given more attention. We’re facing a situation where our farmers, towns and villages will be worse off. It’s only Plaid Cymru that would fight for the best deal for our communities– both rural and urban.”

Jane Dodds – Liberal Democrat

Jane Dodds is a Welsh speaker, having been born and raised in Wrexham, North Wales and studied at Cardiff University. She then trained to be a social worker in child protection and has continued to work in that area for the last 20 years. She has worked in local authorities and has also headed up the Children’s Section at the Refugee Council, supporting children from war-torn countries who arrive in the United Kingdom on their own without family. Jane has been a local councillor, with a Cabinet portfolio on affordable housing, and is a trustee of a Family Centre in Welshpool. She lives in Welshpool with her husband Patrick.

Richard Chaloner – Green Party

Richard grew up in the North Wales border region, and has worked as a further education lecturer, author of textbooks in health and social care and as a senior examiner. After a period in London, Richard moved to rural North Montgomeryshire in the mid 1990s. His children attended local schools, where he acted as a governor.

Richard believes that a sustainable environment and social justice are fundamental aspects of the world we would all wish to live in. He is particularly concerned about the attacks on public services that are harming the most vulnerable in our society, and about the dependence on fossil fuels.

Profile: Stronghold of liberalism

The Montgomeryshire seat is based on similar boundaries to the historic county of the same name.

It is named after the county town Montgomery, which in turn took its name from one of William the Conqueror’s main counsellors, Roger de Montgomerie, who was also the first Earl of Shrewsbury.

Traditionally, the seat has been a stronghold of liberalism in the Welsh countryside.

Among the most famous MPs to have held the seat was Lembit Opik, who served the constituency from 1997 until he lost his seat in 2010.

His regular media appearances included outings on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, he wrote a column for the Daily Sport, and he dated celebrities including weather presenter Sian Lloyd and Cheeky Girls singer Gabriela Irimia.

While another former holder of the Montgomeryshire seat was Liberal Party leader Clement Davies, who served the constituency from 1929 until 1962, and who led the party from 1945 to 1956 – a period when the party’s fortunes were at their nadir, with only a handful of MPs and members defecting to Labour and the Tories.

Alex Carlile was Mr Opik’s predecessor in Montgomeryshire.

Seen by some as a potential leader of the party, he stood down in 1996 to care for his sick daughter.

He was made a life peer in 1999 and was awarded the CBE in 2012 for services to national security.

The Montgomeryshire seat is home to about 60,000 voters.

The Montgomeryshire Welsh Assembly constituency was created with the same boundaries as the Westminster seat in 1999.

Previous results:

2015: GLYN DAVIES (CON) - 15,204 Jane Dodds ( Lib Dem) - 9,879 Des Parkinson (Ukip) - 3,769 Martyn Singleton (Lab) - 1,900 Ann Griffith (Plaid) - 1,745 Richard Chalinor (Green) - 1,260 CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY - 5,325

2010: GLYN DAVIES (CON) - 13,976 Lembit Opik (Lib Dem) - 12,792 Heledd Fychan (Plaid) - 2,802 Nick Colbourne (Lab) - 2,407 David Rowlands (Ukip) - 1,128 Milton Ellis (Nat Front) - 384 Bruce Lawson (Ind) - 324 CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY - 1,184

2005: LEMBIT OPIK (LIB DEM) - 15,419 Simon Boynes (Con) - 8,264 David Tinline (Lab) - 3,454 Ellen ap Gwynn (Plaid) - 2,078 Clive Easton (Ukip) - 900 LIB DEM MAJORITY - 7,173

2001: LEMBIT OPIK (LIB DEM) - 14,219 David Jones (Con) - 8,085 Paul Davies (Lab) - 3,443 David Senior (Plaid) - 1,969 David Rowlands (Ukip) - 786 Ruth Davies (Profile) - 210 Reginald Taylor (Ind) - 171 LIB DEM MAJORITY - 6,234