Shropshire marginals the key to election, say pollsters
The 2019 General Election will be won and lost in Shropshire and the West Midlands, if constituency-by-constituency forecasts by a leading opinion pollster are anything to go by.
And Shrewsbury and Telford are seen as key battlegrounds that must be won if any one party wants to return to Westminster with an overall majority.
Electoral Calculus has produced forecasts for all 650 constituencies in the UK, and predicts that the Conservatives will win with a sizeable majority of 76 – largely due to Tory gains in the West Midlands.
But the study also forecasts that many of these seats will be won by wafer-thin majorities, meaning that only a tiny shift in public opinion could change the picture entirely.
The Electoral Calculus predictions are based on data taken from polls conducted by all the major organisations between October 1 and 25.
In a week in which Labour’s campaign in Shrewsbury has been thrown into chaos by the removal of candidate Laura Davies, the constituency is identified as essential for the party.
The study forecasts that Shrewsbury and Atcham, where Conservative Daniel Kawczynski currently holds a majority of 6,627, is the key seat that Labour will need to take to secure a majority of one in Parliament.
Surprises
Telford has been held by Conservative Lucy Allan with slender majorities of 730 and 720 since 2015. The Brexit Party could come into play here, as there was no Ukip candidate in 2017, but Electoral Calculus predicts that even if Nigel Farage’s party does contest the seat, the Tories will hold Telford with a greatly increased majority.
In the wider West Midlands, it is the industrial areas of the Black Country where some surprises may be seen. Electoral Calculus has forecast that traditional Labour strongholds such as West Bromwich East and West Bromwich West will turn blue for the first time in history.
It forecasts Labour deputy leader Tom Watson will lose his West Bromwich East seat by a margin of just 0.7 per cent – meaning that the seat is too close to call.
Defeat for Mr Watson would be devastating for Labour, which held the seat with a comfortable majority of 7,713 in 2017.
This time the party faces the added complication of a challenge from left-wing firebrand George Galloway, fighting on a pro-Brexit platform.
