UK economic growth weaker than first thought over spring, figures show

Growth across the UK economy was weaker than previously thought over the spring, according to revised official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5% between April and June, revised down from an initial estimate of 0.6%.

Growth was driven by an increase in the services sector, while the manufacturing and construction industries industry dragged on the headline figure, the ONS said.

The figures show that the UK economy continued its recovery from recession at the end of last year, albeit at a slightly slower pace than previously thought.

The revised GDP data covers the latest period before the UK general election, which saw Labour taking over in government at the beginning of July.

A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

GDP increased by 0.7% over the first quarter, between January and March, unrevised figures showed, marking the end of the shallow recessionary period.

Meanwhile, the ONS said that GDP across 2023 is now estimated to have increased by 0.3%, up from the first estimate of 0.1%.

Stronger income data, including pay for employees and profits of businesses, helped boost the overall figure.

Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics for the ONS, said: “Today’s updated GDP figures for 2023 and 2024 include new annual survey data, VAT returns and updated information about the relative size of each industry for the first time.

“However, after taking on these improvements, the quarterly growth path across the last 18 months is virtually unchanged.

“Our latest data show that household savings continue to increase and are now at their highest rate since the Covid-19 lockdowns.”

The household saving ratio is estimated at 10% in the latest quarter, up from 8.9% over the start of the year, meaning people were keeping more of their disposable income locked into savings.

More recent data shows that the economy has been flatlining, with no growth recorded in both June and July.

It prompted Chancellor Rachel Reeves to say she was “under no illusion about the scale of the challenge” the country faces, and that “change will not happen overnight”.

“Two quarters of positive economic growth does not make up for 14 years of stagnation,” she added.

Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said: “The updated data changes the story slightly around the UK’s recent economic performance, but it doesn’t have significant implications for near-term outlook.

“It’s now the case that the post-pandemic recovery was a little stronger than previously thought.”

Other experts noted that the level of household saving during the second quarter was “far higher” than in the years prior to the pandemic, when the ratio sat between 5% and 6%.

“Higher interest rates may well be one of the factors behind that, encouraging saving relative to consumption; and so with a lower path for rates ahead, there is the possibility of some unwind,” said Sandra Horsfield, an analyst at Investec.

She added that higher wages puts “enough fuel in the tank to keep consumer spending moving up” in the future.

Jeremy Hunt, the shadow chancellor, said Monday’s revised GDP figures “once again discredit Labour’s fabricated narrative on the economy”.

“With the Budget only one month away, she must not use it to further damage business confidence with higher regulation and higher taxes,” he said.