UK inflation rises again to hit highest level since March

UK inflation has risen to its highest level since March, driven by an increase in petrol prices last month, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.6% in November, from 2.3% the previous month.

This is the highest rate since March and the second rise in two months.

Grant Fitzner, the ONS’s chief economist, said: “Inflation rose again this month as prices of motor fuel and clothing increased this year but fell a year ago.

“This was partially offset by air fares, which traditionally dip at this time of year, but saw their largest drop in November since records began at the start of the century.”

The rate of CPI inflation for food and non-alcoholic drinks, alcohol and tobacco, clothing and footwear, recreation and culture all edged higher over the year to November, compared with the year to October.

It follows a hike to tobacco duties at the end of October.

Petrol prices also rose by 0.8p per litre between October and November to stand at 134.8p per litre, and diesel prices increased 1.4p per litre to 140.5p per litre.

Overall prices across the transport sector fell by 1.1% in the year to November, but at a slower rate than the 2% fall in the year to October, meaning it was the biggest factor pushing inflation higher last month.

On the other hand, air fares tumbled by 19.3% in November, largely driven by falls in ticket prices on European routes, the ONS said.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said there is “more to do” to combat cost-of-living pressures.

“I know families are still struggling with the cost of living and today’s figures are a reminder that for too long the economy has not worked for working people,” she said.

“Since we arrived real wages have grown at their fastest in three years. That’s an extra £20-a-week after inflation.

“But I know there is more to do. I want working people to be better off which is what our Plan for Change will deliver.”

The inflation level swung back above the Bank of England’s 2% target in October, and the latest data show it continued to move further away from that last month.

Rising CPI is likely to reinforce expectations among economists that the Bank’s policymakers will opt to keep rates on hold at 4.75% when they next decide on Thursday, as they remain cautious of upward pressure on prices.

It comes a day after ONS figures showed wage growth rose by more than expected in the three months to October.

Furthermore, services inflation – which tracks prices across industries from hospitality and culture, to real estate, financial services and education – remained at 5% last month.

Rob Wood, chief UK economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, predicted that CPI inflation could rise to 3.1% in April, and stay at or above 3% until October 2025.

He said services inflation “remains too high to deliver headline CPI inflation sustainably at the 2% target”, adding: “Inflation rising above the MPC’s target is one reason why we expect rate-setters to cut interest rates gradually.”

Experts said inflation over the coming months could be impacted by tax-raising measures laid out in the Government’s autumn Budget.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank Research, said: “Today’s data will only reinforce the MPC’s (Monetary Policy Committee’s) message of patience and gradualism.

“Price pressures are resurfacing again – with employers likely to start ramping up prices at the start of the year to account for the employer NICs (national insurance contributions) increase.

“And the MPC will be cognisant of this heading into its final decision of the year. Put bluntly, the MPC is some way away from declaring victory on inflation.”

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the latest data could be “the calm before the storm, as higher employer national insurance contributions and a bigger minimum wage from April push up employment costs for supermarkets – who may then pass it on to customers”.

Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst for Interactive Investor, said: “This latest inflation reading highlights that the fight against rising prices is far from over.

“Inflationary pressures stemming from measures announced in the Budget, such as heavy borrowing, increased public spending, and uncertainties surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans, mean the Bank of England cannot afford to rest easy.”

The latest figures also showed that CPIH, a measure of inflation which includes owner-occupiers’ housing costs, rose by 3.5% – up from 3.2% the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Retail Prices Index (RPI) rate of inflation rose to 3.6% in November from 3.4% in October.