Shropshire Star comment: Always a tale behind crime stats

One of the somethings we have learned from them in the past is that they are hard to interpret.

The last crop of statistics told us crime was both going up and going down, depending on which yardstick you wished to use – crime recorded by police, or the real-life experiences.

Then there are the goalposts. They are being moved, sometimes they are being widened, and sometimes more goalposts are being created through legislation, which creates new crimes that either did not exist in law at all in the past, or they were rolled in with other categories of crime.

With all those qualifications and health warnings, let’s look at the figures and take them at face value.

Total recorded crime for West Mercia, which is the police force area including Shropshire, is up nine per cent, and within Dyfed Powys it is up 10 per cent.

See also:

• West Mercia Police record nine per cent increase in crime

• Big rise in West Mercia child grooming cases

In isolation that is bad news, but when it is compared, as it is bound to be, against a 15 per cent rise in England and Wales overall (excluding fraud), you could argue West Mercia and Dyfed Powys are bucking the national trend.

There are some stark contrasts. In West Mercia, sexual offences have risen by 21 per cent, while in Dyfed Powys the figure is just a one per cent rise.

Here is just one example of findings you could interpret in contrasting ways.

Is it a great success for West Mercia, in that the force has succeeded in encouraging victims of sex crimes to come forward and report what has happened, and Dyfed Powys needs to get its act together? Or is it indicative of a worrying failure of the West Mercia force to get to grips with the problem, with the consequence that things are getting worse with more and more victims?

Then we have some other figures which jump out. In both West Mercia and Dyfed Powys, recorded offences of weapon possession, and also drug offences, are both significantly down.

It would be naive to assume that means fewer people in those areas are carrying weapons or taking drugs, although that is of course a possible explanation.

It could mean instead that, for whatever reason, those carrying weapons or taking or dealing in drugs are getting away with it to a greater extent than in the past.

So absorb the figures, listen to the police, and listen to the politicians.

And whatever they say, remember to lock your house and car.