India election: Modi’s coalition leads but opposition is stiffer than expected

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition is leading in a majority of seats in India’s general election, according to partial figures.

However, Mr Modi’s coalition faces a stronger challenge from the opposition than expected after it pushed back against the leader’s mixed economic record and polarising politics.

His Hindu nationalist party appears unlikely to secure a majority on its own, according to an ongoing count, despite pre-election hopes of a landslide victory. Mr Modi is still expected to be elected to a third five-year term, however, in the world’s largest democratic exercise.

If that trend holds, it would be a blow for the 73-year-old leader, who has never been in a position where he has needed to rely on his coalition partners to govern.

“People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India’s history,” Mr Modi said on Tuesday in a post on X, formerly Twitter, referring to the National Democratic Alliance that his party heads.

The counting of more than 640 million votes cast over six weeks is set to take all day, and early figures could change.

In his 10 years in power, Mr Modi has transformed India’s political landscape, bringing Hindu nationalism, once a fringe ideology in India, into the mainstream while leaving the country deeply divided.

His supporters see him as a self-made, strong leader who has improved India’s standing in the world. His critics and opponents say his Hindu-first politics have bred intolerance and while the economy, the world’s fifth-largest and one of the fastest-growing, has become more unequal.

Some 10 hours into counting, partial tallies reported by India’s Election Commission showed Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was ahead in 196 constituencies and had won 45, including one uncontested, of 543 parliamentary seats. The main opposition Congress party led in 83 constituencies and had won 15.

A total of 272 seats are needed for a majority. In 2019, the BJP won 303 seats, while they secured 282 in 2014 when Mr Modi first came to power.

Mr Modi’s party is part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), whose members led in 236 constituencies and won 50, according to the partial count. The Congress party is part of the India alliance, which led in 211 constituencies and had won 19.

The Election Commission does not release data on the percentage of votes tallied, and early figures are expected to change.

Exit polling from the weekend had projected the NDA to win more than 350 seats. Indian markets, which had hit an all-time high on Monday, closed sharply down on Tuesday, with benchmark stock indices – the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex – both down by more than 5%.

If Mr Modi wins, it would only be the second time an Indian leader has retained power for a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.

But if his BJP is forced to form a coalition, the party would likely “be heavily dependent on the goodwill of its allies, which makes them critical players who we can expect will extract their pound of flesh, both in terms of policymaking as well as government formation,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This would be truly, you know, uncharted territory, both for Indians as well as for the prime minister,” he added.

Before Mr Modi came to power, India had coalition governments for 30 years. His BJP has always had a majority on its own while still governing in a coalition.

Extreme heat struck India as voters went to the polls. While temperatures were somewhat lower on Tuesday, election officials and political parties still hauled in large quantities of water and installed outdoor air coolers for people waiting for results.

Outside BJP party headquarters in New Delhi, supporters banged drums and bells as the counting was under way. Earlier, party workers performed a Hindu ritual.

Meanwhile, supporters at the Congress party headquarters appeared upbeat and chanted slogans praising Rahul Gandhi, the face of the party’s campaign.

At a news conference, the Congress party president Mallikarjun Kharge said the alliance’s strong showing was a “win for democracy” and a “moral and political loss” for Mr Modi.

Mr Gandhi added that the figures were a message from the people: “The poorest of this country have defended the constitution of India.”

Over 10 years in power, Mr Modi’s popularity has outstripped that of his party’s, and has turned a parliamentary election into one that increasingly resembles a presidential-style campaign. The result is that the BJP relies more and more on Mr Modi’s enduring brand to stay in power, with local politicians receding into the background even in state elections.

“Modi was not just the prime campaigner, but the sole campaigner of this election,” said Yamini Aiyar, a public policy scholar.

The country’s democracy, Mr Modi’s critics say, is faltering under his government, which has increasingly wielded strong-arm tactics to subdue political opponents, squeeze independent media and quash dissent. The government has rejected such accusations and says democracy is flourishing.

And economic discontent has simmered under Mr Modi. While stock markets reach record-highs and millionaires multiply, youth unemployment has soared, with only a small portion of Indians benefiting from the boom.

As polls opened in mid-April, a confident BJP initially focused its campaign on “Modi’s guarantees”, highlighting the economic and welfare achievements that his party says have reduced poverty. With him at the helm, “India will become a developed nation by 2047,” Mr Modi repeated in rally after rally.

But the campaign turned increasingly shrill, as Mr Modi ramped up polarising rhetoric that targeted Muslims, who make up 14% of the population, a tactic seen to energise his core Hindu majority voters.

The opposition India alliance has attacked Mr Modi over his Hindu nationalist politics, and campaigned on issues of joblessness, inflation and inequality.

But the broad alliance of over a dozen political parties has been beset by ideological differences and defections, raising questions over their effectiveness. Meanwhile, the alliance has also claimed they have been unfairly targeted, pointing to a spree of raids, arrests and corruption investigations against their leaders by federal agencies they say are politically motivated. The government has denied this.