Johnny Phillips: Are England going home or will football be coming home?

Both scenarios are easy enough to imagine when assessing England’s chances at this World Cup and perhaps that is par for the course.

The group stages have been fascinating. An uncharacteristic swashbuckling attacking performance against Iran was followed by a dire draw with USA. The defeat of a very poor Wales side told us nothing.

The historic consensus is that as soon as England come up against a genuinely world class team they go out.

Italia ‘90 aside – when they held European champions Holland in the group stages and knocked out Belgium, semi-finalists four years earlier, in the round of 16 – this has been the case.

It happened in 1998 against Argentina, 2002 against Brazil, 2006 against Portugal and 2010 against Germany.

In 2014, Roy Hodgson’s side lost in shambolic fashion to Uruguay and Italy and finished bottom of their group, before Gareth Southgate took England all the way to the semi-finals last time around, only to come up against a Luka Modric-inspired Croatia.

The great failing of that semi-final was England’s inability to dictate play from midfield and it was repeated three years later when Marco Verratti and Jorginho gradually seized hold of the game after England had taken an early lead in the European Championship final.

The thing with this England team is that, however long Gareth Southgate has been in charge, there has always been a question hanging over his management.

And after topping the group at this World Cup the question is still being asked by some supporters – is the manager responsible for getting the best out of this team or is it succeeding despite him?

Southgate’s CV with England suggests he is doing a fine job.

One World Cup semi-final, one European Championship final and now top of the group heading into the round of 16 in Qatar.

Yet it is the long spells of inertia, as we saw against the Americans last week, that frustrate supporters.

International managers never have the influence of a club manager so perhaps it is best to focus on the merits of the team. Again, the jury is out.

At it’s expressive best, this England side has produced some great moments in the group stages but it would be unwise to get carried away just yet.

In terms of a starting line-up, I still haven’t seen a team to match the first XI at Euro 2004. There have been better keepers than David James but the 10 outfield players in front of him made up a phenomenal 4-4-2: Gary Neville, John Terry, Sol Campbell, Ashley Cole; David Beckham, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, Paul Scholes; Michael Owen, Wayne Rooney. What might have been had Rooney’s metatarsal not intervened?

The 2022 version is not in that class, particularly in defence, but the whole squad is perhaps more well-rounded giving Southgate more options than Sven-Goran Eriksson had off the bench. Darius Vassell, Phil Neville and Owen Hargreaves were the three substitutes used when England crashed out on penalties to Portugal in 2004.

Against Wales, with five substitutes permitted, Southgate had so many options. Jack Grealish, Bukayo Saka, Raheem Sterling, Mason Mount and Callum Wilson were all waiting in the wings in case England were struggling to break the Welsh down.

Of the starting line-up, Phil Foden’s quality should see him as first name on the England team-sheet, Harry Kane is well-proven at this level and Marcus Rashford has rediscovered his mojo.

Behind those three, Jude Bellingham is looking like the complete midfielder. It is hard to believe he is just 19 years old but his composure in possession, discipline out of it, and box-to-box energy has been a joy to behold.

Alongside him, Jordan Henderson and Declan Rice do a more limited job that has not been tested at this World Cup by a quality midfield.

England’s defence has been relatively untroubled so far but, again, a decent opposition attack would properly test it.

Senegal rely on a couple of Championship players – Ismaila Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye – for their creative spark so, in theory, England should not be concerned, but the 18th ranked team in the world will offer a different problem to Wales and should not be underestimated.

This has been a World Cup with an unpredictable nature so far.

Morocco and Japan top of their groups. Belgium and Germany already out. Is it opening up for England and others?

Ultimately it will come down to handling the pressure of the big stage. Eriksson’s golden generation never seemed to cope with the hype after 2004 but there is a freshness about players like Bellingham and Foden which gives real hope.

No England team has been able to control a game at the highest level.

Conquer that shortcoming and there is no reason why this team cannot go far.

Fail to turn up and the inquests will start.