Shrewsbury Town's goal stats make for peculiar reading
Shrewsbury find themselves 17th in League One with the third-meanest defensive record in the league but the fourth-lowest goalscoring attack.
The contrasting statistics with 10 league fixtures to go make for peculiar reading, so we’ve looked back through Town’s history in League One – in its current guise – to compare figures at this stage of the campaign. Shrewsbury’s current total of 31 goals for in the third tier is the fewest at this 36-game stage of any Town side at this level over the last decade – even compared to the relegated side of 2014.
However, the flip side sees Cotterill’s men having shipped less than a goal-per-game, with just 35 against from 36 outings. That is, by some way, the club’s best effort aside from 2017/18, where Town were still battling the top two at this stage of the season.
The statistics tell a story of a Shrewsbury side built on solid foundations and set up in an organised and well-drilled shape. Addressing Town’s leaking rearguard was a first objective for the manager when he took over 15 months ago.
Town’s defensive record, third behind top two Rotherham and Wigan, is not a feat associated with a team down in the lower reaches. It becomes even more surprising given a first league clean sheet did not arrive until October 16. Shrewsbury did not draw 0-0 this season until December 29 – now their tally of six stalemates is the joint-most in the top four tiers.
With reasonably few players out of contract this summer and a full overhaul unnecessary, it suggests a squad assembled on a solid base. One of Cotterill’s key mantras is ‘if you can’t win, then don’t lose’. That is drilled into all of his players and teams. The reason, however, a side with such an impressive defensive record finds itself down in the lower reaches is not mystifying.
Goals have not been easy to come by and, beyond Daniel Udoh, Ryan Bowman and Luke Leahy, they have not been shared around enough. Only the bottom three have scored fewer – and not by much.
The manager has said the underlying stats suggest his side should be better off. Following the Cambridge onslaught, Town’s position in the table for xG (expected goals, the metric of which chances for and against are measured, according to the website footballxg.com/) is 12th, five places higher. Their xG for is 40.5, over nine goals more. The xGA (against) is 42.8, nearly eight goals more conceded.
A telling figure is that Town’s net xG taken into account is calculated to have Cotterill’s side 14 points better off, the biggest jump – or drop off – in the division. It would have them 12th.
Despite – and as a result – of the figures, Town must decide how to act on these in the summer. The ‘easy’ answer is in the transfer market. Recruitment is always key – but at a cost.
What will be crucial is whether Cotterill’s side can continue to create chances yet manage to find the net more regularly next season.
Shrewsbury statistics over the last ten years
2012/13 – GF: 40 GA: 46
Final position: 16th.
Graham Turner followed a memorable promotion with a very respectable finish as Town recovered well from a tough start. to the campaign
2013/14 – GF: 34 GA: 47
Final position: 23rd.
Town’s brief stay in the third tier came to an end. Turner resigned in January and the club went down under Mike Jackson with just two wins from their final 14 matches.
2015/16 – GF: 44 GA: 54
Final position: 20th.
Micky Mellon’s men survived relegation by one place and four points after just one win from their final 11 games.
2016/17 – GF: 39 GA: 50
Final position: 18th. Paul Hurst took over from Mellon in October and led the side to safety with a game to spare.
2017/18 – GF: 49 GA: 27
Final position: 3rd. Very much the anomaly campaign. Hurst’s first full season in charge led to the Wembley final double – but real disappointment.
2018/19 – GF: 39 GA: 47
Final position: 18th. Sam Ricketts’ Town achieved a second 18th finish in three seasons in his first season. Safety was secured in the penultimate fixture.
2019/20 – GF: 31 GA: 42
Final position: 16th (15th on points-per-game). Town shifted a place up on the average points – and 15th is a second-best finish since 1990.
Only 34 games were completed due to the pandemic, so these figures are after 34 games, rather than 36.
2020/21 – GF: 40 GA: 42
Final position: 17th. Steve Cotterill replaced Ricketts in November and unfortunately fell ill with Covid-19. Town, however, secured safety with ease as the manager pitched in from hospital.
2021/22 – GF: 31 GA: 35
Current position: 17th. Town have aspirations of climbing well above 17th in these final 10 fixtures.
To finish above 15th would be a good achievement and stand out in the record books.
