Analysing Wolves' summer challenge and recruitment policy changes

Last summer, increased spending brought hope of a successful season under Bruno Lage, before it quickly fell apart.

As a result, Wolves spent in January to back Julen Lopetegui and correct the mistakes of the previous window – and heading into this summer, the club is likely to feel the hangover of that.

As it stands today, Wolves are expecting a tough summer ahead. Internal talks are currently being had to decide on what budget Lopetegui will be afforded, but the club currently have a black hole to fill to stay in line with Financial Fair Play (FFP).

The solution – in some part – to this FFP conundrum would be investment from owners Fosun, or outside investment. Fosun splashing the cash is more likely than the latter, but neither are guaranteed.

Investment would allow Wolves to offset some of the financial losses, and effectively give them more room for manoeuvre this summer, but it would not suddenly allow Wolves to overspend drastically.

A good example, was when Fosun wrote off £126.5million of debt last year that the club owed to them to make the balance sheets more presentable.

Fosun investment would effectively be moving the problem on a year, unless they wrote off more debt, and that is the balance the club needs to find.

Wolves remain financially healthy and well-run as a club, but they have decisions to make with balancing footballing ambition and financial stability.

The club is determined to be self-sustaining and has largely followed that model, and will need to comply with the FFP rules in front of them. Those talks are being had to discover what Fosun’s plans are for the next transfer window, but until those decisions are made, Wolves are facing a difficult summer where they must first let players go – to fall in line with FFP – before they can consider bringing any players in.

‘Sell-to-buy’ is an overused phrase but, right now, Wolves need money coming in before any other movement can take place.

The balance Wolves must find, is how they cover FFP while also backing a world class manager. Everyone at the club is eager to push them forward, and the situation is far from black and white, but they also need to be realistic.

Wolves have to find a way to do both. Lopetegui will want an answer soon on what his budget looks like and the ball is firmly in Fosun’s court.

Every staff member under Lopetegui has made a major commitment to the club and moved their families to the area – while the head coach has more sway after keeping the club in the Premier League.

That is why it should come as no surprise to see him be more bullish in recent press conferences. He is now putting the owners under some pressure to offer up funds. More than ever, he will have ambitions to move Wolves forward and as as one of the club’s most high profile managers in their history, he does not want to be scrapping at the bottom.

He will want to command a budget to create the right squad, and Fosun may have to take that into account so they do not run the risk of losing Lopetegui.

The good news for Wolves fans is that Lopetegui and sporting director Matt Hobbs have an excellent relationship, and the alignment between all departments at the club is in a much healthier place. Wolves have the infrastructure for success, they just need to match that quality in the transfer window.

But the biggest issue Wolves face right now is the ability to re-sign players and bring in fresh blood.

Until the day that investment arrives, Wolves are currently in a position where they cannot afford to take up the two-year option to keep Nelson Semedo.

The player wants to stay, Lopetegui wants him to stay and the club want to re-sign him, but they are unable to until they make up the FFP black hole. What makes this a perilous position, is that the club only have until the end of May to take up the two-year option on Semedo until he becomes a free agent and likely departs. This situation is one of many reasons why internal talks are ramping up in the next week.

Wolves are also in limbo with their other out-of-contract players. They want to keep Adama Traore, and the player is open to staying, but he is currently testing the waters to see who else is interested.

Joao Moutinho is expected to leave, as is Diego Costa, but the club want to hold talks with the latter to assess their options. They feel Costa has earned the right for a conversation at least, but they first must organise their finances.

Plenty of fringe players are also expected to leave. Raul Jimenez, Jonny Castro Otto, Daniel Podence and possibly Rayan Ait-Nouri could see their time at the club coming to an end. Plenty of clubs like Hwang Hee-chan too.

Ruben Neves is expected to go and command a fee of at least £40million, while Matheus Nunes is liked by plenty of teams, but his performances may block a move. He could be worth £70million if he has a stellar season next year, and a club might gamble on him this summer with a cheaper pricetag, but it’s currently unlikely.

Max Kilman is attracting interest and could go for as much as £35million – and all of these players could generate the funds needed if investment is not forthcoming.

In terms of incomings, Wolves also have five targets in the pipeline but they are unable to sign them and agree terms until they have more clarity on the financial situation. At least three of those players could be stolen by other clubs during this limbo.

For fans wondering who Wolves will sign, it is also important to consider the profile they are after. Under the current regime, the days of big-money signings for the likes of Fabio Silva, Nunes and Goncalo Guedes are gone.

Wolves are now prioritising young and hungry players, or those with a point to prove. They want players who are desperate to play for Wolves, and not those they need to persuade with extra cash.

As a result of that, they are unlikely to sign anyone for more than £20million, unless there are some drastic changes in the coming weeks.

Taking all the FFP concerns into account, and the mistakes of the season, Wolves are also making a big shift in their recruitment policy when it comes to Jorge Mendes and his Gestifute agency.

An amazing first couple of years using Mendes propelled Wolves into the Premier League, but when did a client of his last work out at Wolves? Jose Sa, arguably, but other than the goalkeeper you have to go back a few years.

As is his role as an agent, he consistently pushes his players onto other teams, but Wolves are becoming wiser to this failing relationship.

We could see half a dozen Gestifute clients leave Wolves this summer and the club are now actively trying to move away from over-relying on him.

They still want to use his services, but use him as they do with every other agent, and not allow him to infiltrate every deal Wolves look to do.

Wolves now have a head coach in Lopetegui who is pushing against over-relying on Mendes, which contrasts to previous coaches, but club chairman Jeff Shi still has a relationship with the agent and there is a balance to be struck.

Regardless of the antics Morgan Gibbs-White has got up to since leaving Wolves, the deal to let him go and bring in Guedes was a massive mistake in hindsight. Mendes orchestrated that move, while bringing in a player in Guedes who made it clear he did not want to be at Wolves.

It is also important to note that this particular move happened with the support of Lage. Mendes may have helped it become reality, but Lage supported it.

Wolves had to spend big in January to correct the mistakes from the summer, which were largely caused by Mendes clients failing at the club, and that has now resulted in the FFP concerns we are seeing.

Mendes pushed alternatives to Craig Dawson and believed Mario Lemina would not come to Wolves. How wrong he was.

Rumours around his clients joining Wolves are rife overseas, too. The rumours around Ansu Fati are a non-starter, although Barcelona are tracking Neves.

The transfer policy is a big talking point for Wolves. They really like Alex Scott at Bristol City, but a fee of £20milllion-£25million might prove too costly.

Most of Wolves’ success under Fosun has come from signing players in the £8million-£15million bracket and they want to move back to that philosophy.

Look at the extreme examples too. Toti Gomes cost around £1m, Kilman was just £40,000 and incredibly, Hugo Bueno was just £3,000.

Some players currently at the club are hoped to go on to great things, too. Yerson Mosquera is currently doing well on-loan at FC Cincinnati and the American side have an option in their favour to keep him until January – but Wolves and Lopetegui like him for the future.

Boubacar Traore is expected to have a bigger role next season, while Gomes is a level above others of his age and will be a big player. Nathan Collins is also well-liked at Wolves and expected to kick-on, as other clubs track his progress.

The squad size will come down, too, and the pathway to the academy will be opened up – although players will still need to earn their chance.

Star forward Leon Chiwome, 17, is exciting the Wolves staff and will be one to keep an eye on as they look to open up that pathway, which in turn will mean less FFP concerns in future years.

If investment arrives, or Lopetegui is promised a healthy budget, then Wolves’ summer may look different than current forecasts – but the reality is that the club are making big changes to their recruitment policy.

With the infrastructure in place there is reason to be positive and the club now need to navigate the summer to set up for success.