2024 ‘almost certain’ to be hottest year ever as temperatures breach 1.5C target

This year is “virtually certain” to be the world’s hottest on record, with temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial times for the first time.

The latest data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) shows that global temperatures from January to October were 0.71C more than the average from 1991-2020, the highest on record for the period, and 0.16C higher than the same period for 2023 – the world’s hottest year to date.

As a result, it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, the scientists said.

And as 2023 was 1.48C above pre-industrial levels, according to the European dataset, it is also virtually certain 2024 will be more than 1.5C higher than before the industrial revolution, and likely more than 1.55C higher.

That would mean the world has breached – temporarily at least – a key threshold in the fight against dangerous climate change.

Under the Paris climate agreement, countries committed to action to limit temperature rises to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to keep them to 1.5C, beyond which the most devastating impacts of storms, floods, droughts, heatwaves, nature loss and rising seas are expected.

The data also shows that October 2024 was the second-warmest month globally, second only to October 2023, and was 1.65C above pre-industrial levels.

It was the 15th month in a 16-month period that the global average air temperature was more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

The figures, which are based on computer-generated analyses and the “ERA5” dataset, which uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world, come as countries prepare to meet for the latest round of UN climate talks, Cop29, in Azerbaijan.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said: “After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset.

“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming climate change conference, Cop29.”

As Cop29 begins next week, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is due to publish an overarching analysis of global temperatures in 2024, drawing on a series of datasets including the ERA5 data.

Responding to the figures, Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, said: “Our ailing planet is sending us every signal that it is in crisis – the latest being the deadly floods in Spain which have claimed the lives of so many and wreaked colossal damage.

“The time for dither and delay is long gone. We need global leaders to smash the emergency glass now and do everything in their power to prevent further harm.

“As well as accelerating a fair transition to green, low carbon economies, that means putting the measures in place that will protect people, properties and infrastructure from current and future impacts of climate change.”

Mr Childs also called for the UK to bring in stronger plans for the delivering on its nature and climate targets, and a “credible strategy” to prepare for extreme weather, as well as supporting countries on the frontline of the climate crisis”.