Net migration could see UK population reach 72.5 million by 2032 – figures
The Office for National Statistics published estimates on Tuesday.
The UK population could grow by almost five million over the next decade to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032 because of net migration, figures suggest.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects the rise from 67.6 million in mid-2022 will be driven almost entirely by net migration, with the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country estimated to total 4.9 million over the 10-year period.
This is compared to the natural change in population – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be “around zero”.
The data, published on Tuesday, assumes the level of net migration will average 340,000 a year from mid-2028 onwards, lower than current levels.
The number of births compared to the number of deaths across the period is estimated to be almost identical – 6.8 million.
While births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are also projected to rise due to the relatively large number of people reaching older ages who were born during the so-called baby boom in the wake of the Second World War.
The estimates mean the overall UK population is projected to rise by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous 10 years.James Robards, from the ONS, said: “The UK population is projected to grow by almost five million over the next decade. The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero.
“Our latest projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3 million by 2047. This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy.”
Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp described the projection as “shocking and unacceptable”, adding: “It can and must be stopped from materialising” as he called for a “hard binding legal cap on visas issued each year”.
England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8%, compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland.
The ONS also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, for which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9 million, a jump of 13.2%.
This is lower than the previous 25 years from 1997 to 2022, when the population is estimated to have risen by 9.3 million, or 15.9%.
The number of people at state pension age – taking into account the planned rise to 67 – is projected to rise by 1.7 million between mid-2022 and mid-2032, up from an estimated 12.0 million to 13.7 million people.
By mid-2032 more than one in 10 (10.3%) of the UK population are projected to be aged 75 and over, compared with about one in 11 (9.1%) in mid-2022.
The ONS stressed the figures are projections – not predictions or forecasts – because they are based on current and past trends and there is always a level of uncertainty over how the numbers could change as time goes on.
